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 240 
 WTPA42 PHFO 040846
 TCDCP2
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
 11 PM HST WED AUG 03 2005
  
 CONVECTION AROUND ONE-C HAS BEEN ON THE DOWNSWING OVER THE PAST 6 
 TO 8 HOURS...WITH A SINGLE CB NOW SPUTTERING OFF AND ON ALONG THE 
 SOUTHEAST FLANK OF THE LLCC. SATELLITE FIX ESTIMATES FROM CPHC...SAB 
 AND JTWC CONTINUE TO CORRESPOND TO SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 KT. 
 
 FORECAST GUIDANCE VARIES WIDELY BEYOND 24 HOURS...BUT THE 
 STRENGTHENING HIGH NORTH OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD PREVENT MUCH INCREASE 
 IN LATITUDE BEYOND 16N. FORECAST TRACK FOR ONE-C IS VERY CLOSE TO 
 THE PREVIOUS TRACK...SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF GFDL GUIDANCE...WITH 
 THE SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE SLIGHTLY FASTER TOWARDS THE WEST BEYOND 
 24 HOURS. 
 
 WE ARE OPERATING ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT CB ACTIVITY WILL INTENSIFY 
 OVERNIGHT NEAR THE LLCC. GIVEN THE NEUTRAL SHEAR 
 ENVIRONMENT...ONE-C WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH 24 
 HOURS. THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT BECOMES UNFAVORABLE AFTER THAT...LIKELY 
 CAPPING THE STRENGTH OF ONE-C. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH 
 MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BY 24 HOURS...MAINTAIN THAT STRENGTH 
 THROUGH 36 HOURS...THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN TO DISSIPATION AT 120 HOURS. 
  
 FORECASTER POWELL
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      04/0900Z 15.5N 142.0W    25 KT
  12HR VT     04/1800Z 15.9N 143.3W    30 KT
  24HR VT     05/0600Z 16.1N 145.6W    35 KT
  36HR VT     05/1800Z 16.1N 148.0W    35 KT
  48HR VT     06/0600Z 16.1N 150.6W    30 KT
  72HR VT     07/0600Z 16.1N 156.0W    25 KT
  96HR VT     08/0600Z 15.6N 161.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 120HR VT     09/0600Z 14.9N 166.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
  
 $$
 
 
 
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