089
WTPA42 PHFO 040258 CCA
TCDCP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 2...CORRECTED
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
5 PM HST WED AUG 03 2005
ONE-C HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY ORGANIZE DURING THE DAY AND AT LEAST
ON VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS A MUCH BETTER PRESENTATION. CONVECTION ON THE
OTHER HAND HAS DIMINISHED...WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED FOR A WEAK
SYSTEM DURING THE DAY. 00Z SATELLITE FIX ESTIMATES FROM CPHC...SAB
AND JTWC WERE STILL A T1.5 WHICH CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 25KT SUSTAINED
WIND. NO NEW MICROWAVE OR SCATTEROMETER DATA TO WORK WITH THIS
AFTERNOON...SO WILL BE KEEPING IT AS A 25KT STORM TO START.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...MODEL GUIDANCE AND UW-CIMMS VERTICAL SHEAR
ESTIMATES ALL INDICATE THAT ONE-C IS IN AN AREA FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. WINDS ALOFT ARE RELATIVELY WEAK AND IT LOOKS LIKE A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST EAST OF HAWAII IS HELPING TO ESTABLISH AN
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF ONE-C.
CONTINUING WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST PHILOSPHY THAT CONVECTION SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN FIRE OVERNIGHT. ASSUMING THE CONVECTION IS CLOSE TO THE
CENTER...THIS SHOULD HELP INTENSIFY ONE-C LATE TONITE INTO TOMORROW.
IF THIS INDEED HAPPENS...ONE-C WOULD BE NAMED IOKE...HAWAIIAN FOR
JOYCE...AND BE THE FIRST NAMED CENTRAL PACIFIC STORM SINCE 2002. FOR
WHAT ITS WORTH...INTENSITY GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS ONE-C REACHING ABOUT
35KT INTENSITY. GIVEN THAT ONE-C IS RUNNING A SMIDGE NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...HAVE EDGED THE FORECAST A BIT NORTH TO
START...THEN TURNING IT DUE WEST FAR TO THE SOUTH OF HAWAII ALONG
THE LINES OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT AFTER 48
HRS THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE. A FEW TURN THE
SYSTEM NORTH EAST OF THE ISLANDS...A COUPLE WANT TO BRING A WEAK
SYSTEM OVER THE BIG ISLAND AND THE LAST FEW TAKE IT SOUTHWEST. OUR
FORECAST IS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE SPREAD...FAVORING THE FARTHER
SOUTH TRACK SINCE WE DONT SEE ANYTHING AT THIS TIME TO ALLOW ONE-C
TO MOVE MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN 16N OR 17N LATITUDE.
AFTER 36 TO 48 HOURS IT LOOKS LIKE THE ENVIRONMENT WONT BE
AS SUPPORTIVE. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND DIG
PRETTY FAR SOUTH...RESULTING IN STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WHICH WOULD
START TEARING THE SYSTEM APART AND GETTING RID OF CONVECTION.
ALTHOUGH THIS MAY ALL HAPPEN WITHIN 72 HRS. AFTER THAT THE SYSTEM
SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE INTO A LOW LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL/REMNANT LOW
AND START TO TURN MORE SOUTHWEST IN THE LOW LEVEL TRADE FLOW. HAVE
INTRODUCED A HINT OF THIS IN THE FORECAST.
FORECASTER NASH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/0300Z 15.5N 141.6W 25 KT
12HR VT 04/1200Z 15.9N 143.1W 30 KT
24HR VT 05/0000Z 16.3N 145.1W 35 KT
36HR VT 05/1200Z 16.4N 147.0W 35 KT
48HR VT 06/0000Z 16.4N 148.6W 30 KT
72HR VT 07/0000Z 16.4N 152.2W 25 KT
96HR VT 08/0000Z 16.5N 156.3W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT 09/0000Z 16.0N 160.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
CORRECTED FOR IOKE TRANSLATION...MEANS JOYCE IN ENGLISH NOT ROSE
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