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 089 
 WTPA42 PHFO 040258 CCA
 TCDCP2
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER   2...CORRECTED
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
 5 PM HST WED AUG 03 2005
  
 ONE-C HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY ORGANIZE DURING THE DAY AND AT LEAST 
 ON VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS A MUCH BETTER PRESENTATION. CONVECTION ON THE 
 OTHER HAND HAS DIMINISHED...WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED FOR A WEAK 
 SYSTEM DURING THE DAY. 00Z SATELLITE FIX ESTIMATES FROM CPHC...SAB 
 AND JTWC WERE STILL A T1.5 WHICH CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 25KT SUSTAINED 
 WIND. NO NEW MICROWAVE OR SCATTEROMETER DATA TO WORK WITH THIS 
 AFTERNOON...SO WILL BE KEEPING IT AS A 25KT STORM TO START. 
 
 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...MODEL GUIDANCE AND UW-CIMMS VERTICAL SHEAR 
 ESTIMATES ALL INDICATE THAT ONE-C IS IN AN AREA FAVORABLE FOR 
 DEVELOPMENT. WINDS ALOFT ARE RELATIVELY WEAK AND IT LOOKS LIKE A 
 WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST EAST OF HAWAII IS HELPING TO ESTABLISH AN 
 UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF ONE-C. 
 CONTINUING WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST PHILOSPHY THAT CONVECTION SHOULD 
 ONCE AGAIN FIRE OVERNIGHT. ASSUMING THE CONVECTION IS CLOSE TO THE 
 CENTER...THIS SHOULD HELP INTENSIFY ONE-C LATE TONITE INTO TOMORROW. 
 IF THIS INDEED HAPPENS...ONE-C WOULD BE NAMED IOKE...HAWAIIAN FOR 
 JOYCE...AND BE THE FIRST NAMED CENTRAL PACIFIC STORM SINCE 2002. FOR 
 WHAT ITS WORTH...INTENSITY GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS ONE-C REACHING ABOUT 
 35KT INTENSITY.  GIVEN THAT ONE-C IS RUNNING A SMIDGE NORTH OF THE 
 PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...HAVE EDGED THE FORECAST A BIT NORTH TO 
 START...THEN TURNING IT DUE WEST FAR TO THE SOUTH OF HAWAII ALONG 
 THE LINES OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT AFTER 48 
 HRS THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE. A FEW TURN THE 
 SYSTEM NORTH EAST OF THE ISLANDS...A COUPLE WANT TO BRING A WEAK 
 SYSTEM OVER THE BIG ISLAND AND THE LAST FEW TAKE IT SOUTHWEST. OUR 
 FORECAST IS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE SPREAD...FAVORING THE FARTHER 
 SOUTH TRACK SINCE WE DONT SEE ANYTHING AT THIS TIME TO ALLOW ONE-C 
 TO MOVE MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN 16N OR 17N LATITUDE.  
 
 AFTER 36 TO 48 HOURS IT LOOKS LIKE THE ENVIRONMENT WONT BE 
 AS SUPPORTIVE. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND DIG 
 PRETTY FAR SOUTH...RESULTING IN STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WHICH WOULD 
 START TEARING THE SYSTEM APART AND GETTING RID OF CONVECTION. 
 ALTHOUGH THIS MAY ALL HAPPEN WITHIN 72 HRS. AFTER THAT THE SYSTEM 
 SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE INTO A LOW LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL/REMNANT LOW 
 AND START TO TURN MORE SOUTHWEST IN THE LOW LEVEL TRADE FLOW. HAVE 
 INTRODUCED A HINT OF THIS IN THE FORECAST. 
 
  
 FORECASTER NASH
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      04/0300Z 15.5N 141.6W    25 KT
  12HR VT     04/1200Z 15.9N 143.1W    30 KT
  24HR VT     05/0000Z 16.3N 145.1W    35 KT
  36HR VT     05/1200Z 16.4N 147.0W    35 KT
  48HR VT     06/0000Z 16.4N 148.6W    30 KT
  72HR VT     07/0000Z 16.4N 152.2W    25 KT
  96HR VT     08/0000Z 16.5N 156.3W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 120HR VT     09/0000Z 16.0N 160.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
  
 $$
 
 
 CORRECTED FOR IOKE TRANSLATION...MEANS JOYCE IN ENGLISH NOT ROSE
 
 
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