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 548 
 WTNT45 KNHC 152044
 TCDAT5
 HURRICANE OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008
 500 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2008
  
 TWO RECENT PASSES THROUGH OMAR'S EYE INDICATE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
 DECREASED BY AT LEAST 4 MB...DOWN TO 973 MB. THE AIR FORCE RESERVE
 HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ALSO MEASURED A PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL
 WIND OF 89 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT...WHICH EQUATES TO ABOUT AN
 80-KT SURFACE WIND...DESPITE THE HIGHEST SFMR SURFACE MEASURED
 HAVING ONLY BEEN 74 KT. HOWEVER...THE RECON AIRCRAFT AND THE
 CONVECTION HAVE BEEN PLAYING A GAME OF CAT-AND-MOUSE...AND I DO NOT
 BELIEVE THAT THE AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN SAMPLING THE STRONGEST WINDS IN
 THE STRONGEST CONVECTION. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED
 TO 80 KT...WHICH COULD BE A LITTLE LOW GIVEN THAT THE PRESSURE-WIND
 RELATIONSHIP FOR 973 MB CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 85 KT.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/013. AFTER AN EARLIER JOG TO THE
 EAST-NORTHEAST...IT APPEARS THAT OMAR HAS RESUMED ITS BASE COURSE
 BACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO
 THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR PHILOSOPHY AS ALL OF THE TRACK
 MODELS REMAIN TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION
 THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IN
 12-18 HOURS HOURS. AFTER THAT...OMAR IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE AS
 IT GETS DRAWN RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD IN SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW
 ON THE EAST SIDE OF A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH THAT IS
 FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND INTO THE WESTERN AND
 CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY DAY 3. DURING DAYS 4-5...OMAR IS EXPECTED TO
 ACCELERATE THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR EASTWARD AT FORWARD SPEEDS IN
 EXCESS OF 35 KT AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OVER THE MUCH COOLER
 WATERS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
 SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF PREVIOUS TRACK...AND REMAINS SLOWER THAN
 THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH HAS HAD A NOTICEABLE FAST FORWARD
 SPEED BIAS.
  
 STRONG CONVECTIVE BURSTS HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP IN THE EYEWALL
 AND RADAR DATA FROM SAN JUAN HAS INDICATED OCCASIONAL DISTINCT
 MESOVORTICES ROTATING AROUND THE INNER PORTION OF THE EYEWALL. THIS
 FAVORABLE SMALL-SCALE INTENSIFICATION SHOULD PERSISTS FOR ANOTHER
 12 HOURS OR SO...WHICH MEANS THAT OMAR HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF
 REACHING AT LEAST CATEGORY 2 INTENSITY BEFORE IT MOVES THROUGH THE
 NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THE
 GFDL MODEL WAS MUCH MORE BULLISH WITH OMAR ON THE 12Z MODEL RUN AND
 BRINGS THE HURRICANE UP TO 109 KT BY 18-24 HOURS. THAT MUCH
 INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY OVERDONE GIVEN SATELLITE INDICATIONS OF A
 RAPIDLY SHRINKING CDO FEATURE...PLUS THE INTRUSION OF DRY MID-LEVEL
 INTO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER...SINCE OMAR IS
 EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER
 29C SSTS...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING TO 90 KT SEEMS VERY PLAUSIBLE
 ...AND WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR LATER TONIGHT DURING THE USUAL
 NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM PERIOD.  ALSO...INTERESTS IN THE
 LEEWARD ISLANDS ARE REMINDED THAT STRONGER WINDS...POSSIBLY ONE
 CATEGORY HIGHER...CAN BE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY
 ABOVE 500 FT ELEVATION.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      15/2100Z 15.9N  66.1W    80 KT
  12HR VT     16/0600Z 17.6N  64.8W    85 KT...NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS
  24HR VT     16/1800Z 20.4N  62.9W    90 KT
  36HR VT     17/0600Z 23.2N  60.9W    90 KT
  48HR VT     17/1800Z 26.1N  59.2W    85 KT
  72HR VT     18/1800Z 31.7N  54.8W    75 KT
  96HR VT     19/1800Z 39.0N  44.5W    60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 120HR VT     20/1800Z 48.0N  27.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  
 $$
 FORECASTER STEWART
  
 
 
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