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 670 
 WTNT45 KNHC 142059
 TCDAT5
 TROPICAL STORM OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008
 500 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008
  
 SATELLITE...RADAR...AND AIR FORCE RECON DATA INDICATE THAT OMAR HAS
 RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MAXIMUM 850 MB
 FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OBSERVED HAVE ONLY BEEN 63 KT...RELIABLE SFMR
 SURFACE WIND DATA HAVE BEEN AS HIGH 57-60 KT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
 THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE LOWEST CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A
 DROPSONDE WAS 986 MB...BUT THE SURFACE WIND WAS 46 KT. THEREFORE...
 THE PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 982 MB AND THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN
 INCREASED TO A CONSERVATIVE 60 KT. OMAR CONTINUES TO GET BETTER
 ORGANIZED IN BOTH RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND VERY COLD CLOUD
 TOPS OF -80C TO -87C PERSIST OVER AND NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER.
 ON THE LAST PASS THROUGH THE CENTER OF OMAR...THE FLIGHT CREW
 REPORTED A 10-15 NMI DIAMETER EYE WAS FORMING. OUTFLOW ALSO
 CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AND EXPAND IN ALL QUADRANTS...EXCEPT TO THE
 NORTHWEST WHERE IT IS SLIGHTLY RESTRICTED.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 060/06. THE THREE RECON FIXES
 THIS AFTERNOON SUGGEST THAT OMAR MAY BE FINALLY MAKING THE TURN TO
 THE NORTHEAST THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING FOR THE PAST
 SEVERAL CYCLES. ALL OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY
 CLUSTERED ON A TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IN ABOUT
 36 HOURS...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCELERATION EXPECTED AFTER THAT AS
 OMAR GETS LIFTED RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A DIGGING
 MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH THAT COVERS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
 ATLANTIC. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS IS IN THE FORWARD
 SPEED OF OMAR AFTER 24 HOURS. THE GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS RACE
 OMAR QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST...WHEREAS THE UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS
 ARE NOTICEABLY SLOWER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED
 SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS...BUT
 REMAINS JUST TO THE WEST OF AND SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
  
 ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...POSSIBLY EVEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION... IS
 EXPECTED SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE MUCH IN
 THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF
 THE SHIPS...GFDL... AND HWRF MODELS...AND OMAR IS EXPECTED TO
 OBTAIN CATEGORY 2 STRENGTH BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE NORTHERN
 LEEWARD ISLANDS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE
 SHIPS MODEL BRINGS OMAR TO 104 KT BY 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE 12Z
 HWRF MODEL ONLY BRINGS OMAR TO 88 KT AND THE GFDL ONLY STRENGTHENS
 THE CYCLONE TO 62 KT. BASED ON A STRONGER VORTEX INITIALIZED BY THE
 MODELS FOR THE 18Z CYCLE...OUTPUT FROM THOSE MODELS DUE OUT IN A
 FEW HOURS MAY BE QUITE DIFFERENT AND MUCH STRONGER. AS A RESULT...
 SUBSEQUENT NHC INTENSITY FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      14/2100Z 14.0N  68.5W    60 KT
  12HR VT     15/0600Z 14.6N  68.0W    70 KT
  24HR VT     15/1800Z 15.9N  66.4W    80 KT
  36HR VT     16/0600Z 18.0N  64.3W    85 KT
  48HR VT     16/1800Z 20.6N  62.1W    85 KT
  72HR VT     17/1800Z 26.0N  58.4W    80 KT
  96HR VT     18/1800Z 31.1N  55.5W    70 KT
 120HR VT     19/1800Z 38.0N  49.0W    60 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER STEWART
  
 
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