944 
 WTNT45 KNHC 132037
 TCDAT5
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008
 500 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2008
  
 THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY IN ORGANIZATION DURING
 THE DAY AND THE APPARENT CENTER HAS BEEN AT TIMES EXPOSED DUE TO
 SHEAR. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE
 EXPANDING WESTWARD SUGGESTING THAT THE SHEAR IS RELAXING A BIT.
 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE CARIBBEAN INDICATE THAT THERE IS A
 LARGE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE.  A RECONNAISSANCE
 PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO BE IN THE DEPRESSION SHORTLY.  NO SIGNIFICANT
 CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST IS INDICATED AND IT
 CONTINUES TO BE A BLEND OF THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE GFDL/HWRF MODEL
 PAIR. THE LATTER MODELS MAKE THE DEPRESSION A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES
 NEAR PUERTO RICO.  
 
 THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS AND
 LITTLE MOTION IS INDICATED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...
 GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE AND
 STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE
 SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE TO
 RECURVE AND MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD
 SPEED.  ON THIS TRACK...THE CYCLONE WILL BE NEAR PUERTO RICO IN
 ABOUT 48 HOURS AND THEN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. ALTHOUGH A
 FORECAST POSITION IS INDICATED AT 120 HOURS OVER THE ATLANTIC...
 THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY
 A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL STORM BY THAT TIME.  THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST
 FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
 ENVELOPE DURING THE FIRST 3 DAYS.
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      13/2100Z 14.8N  69.9W    30 KT
  12HR VT     14/0600Z 14.9N  69.9W    40 KT
  24HR VT     14/1800Z 15.5N  69.5W    45 KT
  36HR VT     15/0600Z 16.5N  68.4W    50 KT
  48HR VT     15/1800Z 17.7N  66.6W    55 KT
  72HR VT     16/1800Z 20.0N  63.5W    65 KT
  96HR VT     17/1800Z 23.5N  59.5W    60 KT
 120HR VT     18/1800Z 27.5N  56.0W    50 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
 
 
 169 
 WTNT44 KNHC 132037
 TCDAT4
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142008
 500 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2008
  
 CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH NANA HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE TODAY AND
 THE REMAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LOCATED VERY FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST
 OF THE CENTER.  STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND
 NANA SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW VERY SOON.  IT IS
 TEMPTING TO DECLARE NANA REMNANT LOW AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER IT
 SEEMS BEST TO WAIT A FEW MORE HOURS TO MAKE SURE THAT CONVECTION
 DOES NOT TRY TO REFORM. 
 
 NANA HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
 DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 
 295/8 KT.  NANA OR ITS REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A
 WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION UNTIL DISSIPATION AND ONLY A SLIGHT
 NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT WAS REQUIRED TO THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      13/2100Z 17.5N  40.6W    30 KT
  12HR VT     14/0600Z 18.1N  41.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  24HR VT     14/1800Z 18.9N  42.9W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  36HR VT     15/0600Z 19.9N  44.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  48HR VT     15/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BROWN