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 465 
 WTNT45 KNHC 131441
 TCDAT5
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008
 1100 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2008
  
 THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS
 DEVELOPED ENOUGH CIRCULATION AND DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED
 AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. NORMALLY...I WOULD WAIT FOR THE
 RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WHICH IN FACT IS SCHEDULE FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO
 START ADVISORIES...BUT IN THIS CASE...THERE ARE DATA SUPPORTING THE
 PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CAN BE
 DEPICTED ON THE CURACAO RADAR...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS..CLOUD WIND
 VECTORS AND ON THE LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS THIS MORNING. INITIAL
 INTENSITY IS 30 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AND QUIKSCAT.
 THE DEPRESSION IS NOT EMBEDDED IN THE BEST ENVIRONMENT FOR
 STRENGTHENING SINCE THERE IS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...BUT IS FAVORABLE
 ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO REACH TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY IN 12
 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SOME
 MAKING THE INTENSITY FORECAST HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. AT THIS TIME...THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL MODEL SHIPS AND THE
 DYNAMICAL MODELS GFDL AND HWRF. IN FACT...THE GFDL AND HWRF
 FORECAST THE DEPRESSION TO BE A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES NEAR
 PUERTO RICO.
   
 THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS AND IS
 DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD. SINCE NO CHANGE IN STEERING IS EXPECTED FOR
 A DAY OR TWO...NO SIGNIFICANT MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THAT
 PERIOD. THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A LARGE AND STRONG MID-
 LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED
 TO BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
 TROUGH AND RECURVE. THIS TRACK SHOULD BRING THE CYCLONE VERY CLOSE
 TO PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS AND OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC
 THEREAFTER. THIS TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND
 ALSO IS HEAVILY BIASED TOWARD THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      13/1500Z 14.8N  69.6W    30 KT
  12HR VT     14/0000Z 15.1N  70.0W    35 KT
  24HR VT     14/1200Z 15.5N  70.0W    45 KT
  36HR VT     15/0000Z 16.0N  69.0W    50 KT
  48HR VT     15/1200Z 17.0N  67.5W    55 KT
  72HR VT     16/1200Z 20.0N  63.5W    65 KT
  96HR VT     17/1200Z 24.0N  59.5W    65 KT
 120HR VT     18/1200Z 30.0N  55.0W    65 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
 
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