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 710 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 082050
 TCDEP2
 
 Hurricane Olivia Discussion Number  33
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018
 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 08 2018
 
 The satellite presentation of Olivia has remained about the same
 for the past several hours, as eyewall convection stays mostly
 solid around the eye.  Dvorak estimates are basically unchanged, so
 the initial wind speed is kept at 75 kt.  Olivia should stay a
 hurricane for the next couple of days while it is experiencing light
 shear, balanced by very dry air aloft and marginal but warming SSTs.
 After the weekend, most of the guidance continue to indicate that
 westerly shear should increase, and weakening is forecast while
 Olivia approaches the Hawaiian Islands.  No significant changes
 were made to the intensity forecast.
 
 Olivia is moving westward at 13 kt.  There is no change to the
 synoptic reasoning.  A building subtropical ridge should steer the
 hurricane basically due westward for the next couple of days.
 Thereafter, a mid-level ridge over Hawaii should cause Olivia to
 lose some latitude and move west-southwestward toward the main
 Hawaiian Islands.  The models are in better agreement on this cycle,
 with the UKMET and GFS models trending more to the north, resulting
 in a smaller guidance spread.  The official forecast is shifted a
 bit northward to match the guidance trend.  A C-130 plane is
 currently conducting a synoptic surveillance mission around Olivia,
 which should hopefully aid later forecasts, which will be issued by
 the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.
 
 
 KEY MESSAGES:
 
 1. Olivia is forecast to approach the main Hawaiian Islands from
 the east on Tuesday, and pass close to or over the Islands on
 Wednesday.  It is too soon to determine the exact location and
 magnitude of any impacts, but interests in Hawaii should continue to
 monitor the progress of Olivia, and use this time to enact your
 hurricane action plan.
 
 2.  Do not focus on the exact track or intensity forecast, or any
 specific landfall location, as errors can be large at extended time
 ranges.  Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could be felt
 anywhere in the islands as significant impacts could extend well
 away from the center.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  08/2100Z 21.7N 139.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
  12H  09/0600Z 21.9N 141.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
  24H  09/1800Z 22.0N 144.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
  36H  10/0600Z 22.0N 146.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
  48H  10/1800Z 22.0N 148.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
  72H  11/1800Z 21.4N 152.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
  96H  12/1800Z 20.4N 156.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 120H  13/1800Z 19.5N 162.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Blake
 
 
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