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 821 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 081459 CCA
 TCDEP2
 
 Hurricane Olivia Discussion Number  32...Corrected
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018
 800 AM PDT Sat Sep 08 2018
 
 Corrected initial intensity in the text from 70 to 75 kt.
 
 Satellite images indicate that Olivia continues to slowly weaken.
 The eyewall convection has warmed during the past several hours,
 with some breaks noted in the northwestern quadrant.  A blend of
 the various intensity estimates gives a value of 75 kt for this
 advisory.  Olivia is forecast to stay a hurricane for the next
 couple of days while the system is experiencing light shear,
 balanced by very dry air aloft and marginal but warming SSTs.
 While the forecast is flat-lined through 48 hours, don't be
 surprised if the system's intensity fluctuates upward at times, as
 many eastern Pacific cyclones have done so this season within a
 marginal environment.  After the weekend, most of the guidance
 indicates that westerly shear should increase, which will likely
 cause weakening while Olivia approaches the Hawaiian Islands. The
 new intensity forecast is basically an update of the previous one
 and is close to the consensus.
 
 Olivia has turned westward and is moving 275/13.  A building
 subtropical ridge should steer the hurricane basically due westward
 for the next couple of days, and the model guidance is in good
 agreement during this time.  Thereafter, a mid-level ridge over
 Hawaii will impart some northerly steering flow on Olivia, which
 should cause the cyclone to move west-southwestward toward the
 main Hawaiian Islands.  There isn't great agreement on how fast it
 will turn, however, due to the forecast depth of Olivia.  The
 guidance generally indicates a stronger system will turn more
 southwestward, like the GFS or UKMET solutions, while a weaker
 system would have less of a turn, like the ECMWF or HWRF solutions.
 The model consensus has barely budged since the previous advisory,
 so little change has been made.  Since the track seems to be
 dependent on the intensity at long range, this isn't a particularly
 confident forecast.
 
 
 KEY MESSAGES
 
 1. Olivia is forecast to approach the main Hawaiian Islands from
 the east early next week, but it is too soon to determine the exact
 location and magnitude of any impacts.  Interests in Hawaii should
 monitor the progress of Olivia this weekend and use this time to
 enact your hurricane action plan.
 
 2.  Do not focus on the exact track or intensity forecast, or any
 specific landfall location, as errors can be large at extended time
 ranges.  Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could be felt
 anywhere in the islands as significant impacts could extend well
 away from the center.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  08/1500Z 21.4N 138.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
  12H  09/0000Z 21.6N 140.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
  24H  09/1200Z 21.7N 142.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
  36H  10/0000Z 21.7N 145.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
  48H  10/1200Z 21.7N 147.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
  72H  11/1200Z 21.2N 151.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
  96H  12/1200Z 20.2N 155.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 120H  13/1200Z 19.0N 160.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Blake
 
 
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