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 864 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 080852
 TCDEP2
 
 Hurricane Olivia Discussion Number  31
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018
 200 AM PDT Sat Sep 08 2018
 
 The satellite presentation of Olivia has continued to degrade
 overnight with the surrounding ring of deep convection warming
 and the eye becoming less distinct.  Dvorak T-numbers have decreased
 and a blend of current intensity (CI) numbers from TAFB and SAB, and
 ADT and SATCON estimates from UW/CIMSS yields an initial wind speed
 of 80 kt.  Although the vertical wind shear is expected to remain
 low over Olivia, the hurricane will be moving over marginal sea
 surface temperatures of 25-26C, and into a dry mid-level
 environment. These factors are expected to cause gradual weakening
 over the next 24 hours.  After that time, slightly warmer SSTs along
 the forecast track should slow or halt the weakening process, and
 little change in strength is expected between 24 and 72 hours.
 Increasing southwesterly shear by day 3 is likely to result in
 additional weakening later in the forecast period.  The NHC
 intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is
 between the HFIP corrected consensus model and the IVCN consensus
 aid.
 
 Olivia is moving west-northwestward or 285/13 kt.  A strong
 deep-layer ridge that is building westward across the central
 Pacific should steer Olivia generally westward over the next 2-3
 days.  After that time, most of the track guidance takes Olivia
 west-southwestward as it comes under the influence of the
 northeasterly trade wind flow.  Although the track models are fairly
 unanimous in taking Olivia west-southwestward, there is large
 cross-track spread in the guidance at 72 hours and beyond.  The HWRF
 and ECMWF are along the northern side of the guidance envelope while
 the GFS and UKMET bracket the southern side.  Given the large amount
 of spread, the official forecast is again near the TVCN and HFIP
 consensus models at 72-120 h.  On the forecast track, Olivia is
 expected to cross into the central Pacific basin later today and
 approach the Hawaiian Islands early next week.
 
 
 KEY MESSAGES
 
 1. Olivia is forecast to approach the main Hawaiian Islands from
 the east early next week, but it is too soon to determine the exact
 location and magnitude of any impacts.  Interests in Hawaii should
 monitor the progress of Olivia this weekend and use this time to
 enact your hurricane action plan.
 
 2.  Do not focus on the exact track or intensity forecast, or any
 specific landfall location, as errors can be large at extended time
 ranges.  Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could be felt
 anywhere in the islands as significant impacts could extend well
 away from the center.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  08/0900Z 21.2N 136.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
  12H  08/1800Z 21.5N 138.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
  24H  09/0600Z 21.7N 141.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
  36H  09/1800Z 21.8N 144.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
  48H  10/0600Z 21.8N 146.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
  72H  11/0600Z 21.5N 150.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
  96H  12/0600Z 20.5N 154.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 120H  13/0600Z 19.2N 159.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brown
 
 
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