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 224 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 080256
 TCDEP2
 
 Hurricane Olivia Discussion Number  30
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018
 800 PM PDT Fri Sep 07 2018
 
 The cloud pattern of Olivia has continued to degrade this evening
 with warming of the inner core, and a decreasing eye temperature. A
 compromise of the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates, and an
 earlier SATCON analysis, support decreasing the initial wind speed
 to 85 kt.  Olivia still has an annular appearance with the cloud
 pattern consisting of an inner core with little to no outer bands.
 
 Continued slow weakening is forecast during the next 3 days as
 Olivia moves over marginal sea surface temperatures of about 25C and
 into an increasingly drier, more stable thermodynamic environment.
 Afterward, Olivia will move back over slightly warmer waters and
 remain in a low shear environment, so little change in strength is
 expected through day 3. Through the remaining portion of the
 forecast, southwesterly vertical wind shear of 15-20 kt should
 induce more significant weakening.
 
 Olivia's motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 290/13 kt,
 and is being steered by a strong deep-layer subtropical ridge that
 extends from Mexico and the southwestern U.S. westward into the
 central Pacific.  The cyclone is forecast to move west-northwestward
 for 72 hours or so before turning to the west, or even
 west-southwest, as the aforementioned ridge builds to the north. The
 official forecast has been adjusted south of the previous forecast
 beyond day 3 to conform more with the NOAA-HCCA and TVCN consensus
 models.  On the forecast track, Olivia is expected to cross into the
 central Pacific basin by late Saturday and approach the Hawaiian
 Islands in 4 to 5 days.
 
 KEY MESSAGES
 
 1. Olivia is forecast to approach the main Hawaiian Islands from
 the east early next week, but it is too soon to determine the exact
 location and magnitude of any impacts.  Interests in Hawaii should
 monitor the progress of Olivia this weekend and use this time to
 enact your hurricane action plan.
 
 2.  Do not focus on the exact track or intensity forecast, or any
 specific landfall location, as errors can be large at extended time
 ranges.  Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could be felt
 anywhere in the islands as significant impacts could extend well
 away from the center.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  08/0300Z 20.9N 135.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
  12H  08/1200Z 21.3N 137.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
  24H  09/0000Z 21.6N 140.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
  36H  09/1200Z 21.8N 142.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
  48H  10/0000Z 21.8N 145.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
  72H  11/0000Z 21.7N 149.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
  96H  12/0000Z 20.9N 152.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 120H  13/0000Z 19.5N 157.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Roberts/Birchard
 
 
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