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 009 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 072042
 TCDEP2
 
 Hurricane Olivia Discussion Number  29
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018
 200 PM PDT Fri Sep 07 2018
 
 Olivia continues to slowly weaken.  Deep convection in the eyewall
 has been gradually decreasing in intensity and coverage, but it
 still completely surrounds the eye.  A blend of the latest
 satellite intensity estimates supports lowering the initial wind
 speed to 95 kt.  Olivia still has an annular appearance with the
 cloud pattern consisting of an inner core with little to no outer
 bands.
 
 The hurricane is moving west-northwestward at 14 kt.  There
 has been no change to the track forecast reasoning.  Olivia is
 forecast to move west-northwestward for another day or so before
 turning to the west, or even west-southwest, as ridging builds to
 the north of the system.  The NHC track forecast remains near the
 middle of the guidance envelope, and in best agreement with the
 consensus aids.  Based on this forecast, Olivia is expected to cross
 into the central Pacific basin by late Saturday and approach the
 Hawaiian Islands in 4 to 5 days.
 
 Although Olivia remains in low wind shear conditions, the cyclone
 is over fairly cool 25-26 deg C waters.  These marginal SSTs and an
 increasingly drier and more stable air mass should cause the slow
 weakening trend to continue through the forecast period.  However,
 as mentioned in previous discussions, annular hurricanes like
 Olivia often weaken slower than normal in these conditions, so it
 is possible Olivia won't weaken as fast as some of the guidance
 suggests.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  07/2100Z 20.5N 133.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
  12H  08/0600Z 21.1N 135.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
  24H  08/1800Z 21.6N 138.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
  36H  09/0600Z 21.8N 141.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
  48H  09/1800Z 22.0N 143.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
  72H  10/1800Z 22.0N 148.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
  96H  11/1800Z 21.6N 151.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 120H  12/1800Z 20.5N 156.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi
 
 
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