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 345 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 070232
 TCDEP2
 
 Hurricane Olivia Discussion Number  26
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018
 800 PM PDT Thu Sep 06 2018
 
 Olivia's satellite presentation is an outstanding example of an
 annular hurricane with the shape of a truck tire.  In fact, the
 Annular Hurricane Index on the SHIPS model output is 100. The
 hurricane has a distinct clear eye surrounded by a ring of very deep
 convection. The Dvorak numbers, both objective and subjective, are
 T6.0, and on this basis, the winds are increased to 115 kt in this
 advisory. The current annular pattern indicates that hurricane
 should weaken more slowly that indicated by guidance in the short
 term. Nevertheless, since the ocean is a little bit cooler along the
 forecast track, very gradual weakening is forecast through the next
 5 days. The confidence in the intensity forecast is not very high.
 
 On the contrary, the confidence in the track forecast is high.
 Olivia is fully embedded within the easterly flow south of a
 subtropical high, and the hurricane is moving toward the
 west-northwest or 290 degrees at 12 kt. The subtropical high will
 persist, and most likely expand farther westward, and this flow
 pattern will force Olivia to move on the general westward track or
 even south of due west by the end of the forecast period. Guidance
 for the next 5 days is in extremely good agreement, and the NHC
 forecast in on top of the skinny guidance envelope.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  07/0300Z 19.1N 129.7W  115 KT 130 MPH
  12H  07/1200Z 19.7N 131.6W  115 KT 130 MPH
  24H  08/0000Z 20.5N 134.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
  36H  08/1200Z 21.2N 136.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
  48H  09/0000Z 21.5N 139.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
  72H  10/0000Z 21.8N 144.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
  96H  11/0000Z 22.0N 148.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 120H  12/0000Z 21.5N 152.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila
 
 
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