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 823 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 060844
 TCDEP2
 
 Hurricane Olivia Discussion Number  22
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018
 200 AM PDT Thu Sep 06 2018
 
 The cloud tops surrounding Olivia's 25 n mi diameter eye have cooled
 somewhat over the past several hours, indicative of a little
 strengthening.  The initial intensity is increased to 90 kt, which
 is a blend of lower subjective Dvorak estimates and higher objective
 SATCON and ADT estimates.  Olivia will soon be moving over somewhat
 cooler SSTs and into a drier mid-level air mass.  This should lead
 to gradual weakening over the next few days.  The official intensity
 forecast is very close to the simple and corrected intensity
 consensus models, IVCN and HCCA.  Olivia has a fairly large eye
 with limited banding features, but the numerical guidance indicates
 a low likelihood that the system could become an annular hurricane.
 Nonetheless, if that transition were to occur, Olivia would likely
 maintain a higher intensity for the next few days than indicated
 here.
 
 No significant changes have been made to the NHC track prediction
 or forecast reasoning.  Olivia continues moving west-northwestward
 or 285/12 kt.  A well-defined deep-layer ridge should remain in
 place to the north of the hurricane for the next several days, and
 this ridge is expected to build westward during the forecast
 period.  As a result, Olivia should gradually turn from its
 west-northwestward heading to a westward course by the weekend.
 The track guidance models remain in excellent agreement on this
 scenario.  The official forecast is close to the dynamical model
 consensus and the latest ECMWF prediction.  This is essentially an
 update of the previous NHC track.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  06/0900Z 18.1N 125.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
  12H  06/1800Z 18.5N 127.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
  24H  07/0600Z 19.4N 130.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
  36H  07/1800Z 20.2N 132.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
  48H  08/0600Z 21.0N 135.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
  72H  09/0600Z 21.7N 140.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
  96H  10/0600Z 22.0N 145.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 120H  11/0600Z 22.0N 149.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Pasch
 
 
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