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 441 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 060238
 TCDEP2
 
 Hurricane Olivia Discussion Number  21
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018
 800 PM PDT Wed Sep 05 2018
 
 Olivia continues to have a large and distinct eye, but the
 surrounding convection has not changed in the past 6 h or so. Dvorak
 numbers are steady, and a blend of objective and subjective
 estimates yield an initial intensity of 85 kt.  The shear is not a
 problem for Olivia since it is forecast to remain low through the
 entire 5-day period.  However, in about a day, the SSTs along
 Olivia's track will decrease resulting in a gradual weakening
 of the cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the
 previous one, and follows the intensity consensus.
 
 There has been no change in track, and Olivia is still moving
 toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees at 12 kt. The subtropical
 ridge is anchored north of the hurricane, and this flow pattern
 should continue to steer Olivia on the same general track for he
 next 5 days.  By the end of the forecast period, the ridge is
 expected to expand westward, forcing the cyclone to move westward.
 Track models are in an excellent agreement, and the guidance
 envelope remains tightly clustered for the next 3 days.  After
 that time, although the envelope widens a little bit, models still
 indicate a westward-moving cyclone.  The NHC forecast is in the
 middle of the envelope and very close to the multi-model aids.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  06/0300Z 17.7N 124.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
  12H  06/1200Z 18.2N 126.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
  24H  07/0000Z 18.9N 129.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
  36H  07/1200Z 20.0N 132.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
  48H  08/0000Z 20.8N 134.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
  72H  09/0000Z 21.8N 139.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
  96H  10/0000Z 22.0N 144.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 120H  11/0000Z 22.0N 149.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila
 
 
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