302 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 051442
 TCDEP2
 
 Hurricane Olivia Discussion Number  19
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018
 800 AM PDT Wed Sep 05 2018
 
 Olivia is still slowly weakening, with a continued erosion of the
 eyewall convection in the northwestern quadrant.  The various
 subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are now in
 the 90-100 kt range, and the initial intensity is reduced to 95 kt
 given the decay in the cloud pattern since the previous advisory.
 
 Olivia is currently experiencing moderate easterly shear, but the
 guidance suggests this should decrease during the next 12-24 h.
 Therefore, the major influences on the intensity should be gradually
 decreasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast track and
 entrainment of dry air.  The intensity guidance is in good agreement
 that Olivia should weaken through the forecast period, and based on
 this the new intensity forecast is an update of the previous
 forecast.  There is a chance that Olivia could weaken faster than
 currently forecast during the first 24 h if the current convective
 trend continues.
 
 The initial motion is 280/11.  There is no change to the forecast
 philosophy from the previous advisory, and there are only minor
 adjustments to the forecast track.  A building subtropical ridge
 over the eastern Pacific to the north of Olivia should induce a
 general west-northwestward motion with increasing forward speed
 during the next several days.  Toward the end of the forecast
 period, global models continue to show a stronger ridge that would
 turn Olivia back to a westward motion.  The track guidance is in
 good agreement with this scenario, although the UKMET and the UKMET
 ensemble mean show a motion to the north of the other models.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  05/1500Z 17.1N 122.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
  12H  06/0000Z 17.4N 124.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
  24H  06/1200Z 18.1N 126.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
  36H  07/0000Z 19.0N 129.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
  48H  07/1200Z 19.9N 132.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
  72H  08/1200Z 21.5N 137.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
  96H  09/1200Z 22.0N 142.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 120H  10/1200Z 22.5N 147.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Beven