Image Department Meteorology
Meteorology_Home Weather_Server News/Seminars
People
Research
Academics Application Contact_Us

Hawaiian_Weather
US_Mainland_Weather
Tropical_Weather
Satellite_Imagery
Radar_Imagery
Marine
Numerical_Models
LAPS
Forecasts
Observations
Archive
Links Disclaimer
Space
SOEST_Home
University_of_Hawaii_Home

 769 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 050857
 TCDEP2
 
 Hurricane Olivia Discussion Number  18
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018
 200 AM PDT Wed Sep 05 2018
 
 GOES-15 imagery and a recent METOP-B AMSU overpass indicate that
 Olivia's eyewall has collapsed in the northwest quadrant.
 Additionally, the eye temperature has warmed considerably.
 Subjective and Objective T-numbers have decreased and support a
 lowered intensity of 100 kt for this advisory.
 
 Moderate easterly shear, gradually decreasing sea surface
 temperatures, and drier, more stable air in the middle portions of
 the atmosphere along the forecast track of the cyclone should
 cause the hurricane to continue to slowly weaken.  The only
 adjustment made to the NHC intensity forecast was a slight increase
 at day 4 and 5 to agree more with the consensus intensity guidance.
 
 Olivia's current motion is estimated to be westward, or 275/11 kt.
 A building subtropical ridge over the eastern Pacific and to the
 north of Olivia is should induce a westward and west-northwestward
 with increasing forward speed during the next several days.
 Toward the end of the forecast period, global models continue to
 show a stronger ridge, and a turn back toward the west is shown
 in the advisory.  The official forecast is similar to the forecast 6
 hours ago, and is close to the NOAA-HCCA and TVCN, which are
 typically better-performing guidance models.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  05/0900Z 16.9N 121.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
  12H  05/1800Z 17.2N 122.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
  24H  06/0600Z 17.8N 125.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
  36H  06/1800Z 18.6N 128.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
  48H  07/0600Z 19.6N 130.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
  72H  08/0600Z 21.3N 136.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
  96H  09/0600Z 22.2N 141.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 120H  10/0600Z 22.8N 146.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Roberts
 
 
Return to the Tropical Systems Page for OLIVIA

Back to main Tropical Weather page




This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students.
It was last modified on: Thu, Jul 23 2020 - 2003 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman