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 175 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 050247
 TCDEP2
 
 Hurricane Olivia Discussion Number  17
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018
 800 PM PDT Tue Sep 04 2018
 
 Olivia is displaying a well-defined eye this evening embedded within
 a circular central dense overcast.  The rapid intensification seems
 to have leveled off, since Dvorak estimates have increased only
 slightly, but still support a higher wind speed of 110 kt.
 
 Moderate easterly shear, gradually decreasing sea surface
 temperatures, and dry air aloft along the forecast track of Olivia
 will likely cause the hurricane to slowly weaken by late Wednesday.
 The new intensity forecast is slightly higher than the last one,
 near or a bit above the model consensus.  The forecast is on the
 higher side of the guidance because I don't feel particularly
 confident about this weakening, given the poor performance of the
 guidance for this hurricane so far.
 
 Olivia is moving a little south of due west, 265/10.  A
 building subtropical ridge over the eastern Pacific is forecast
 to cause the hurricane to move westward and west-northwestward
 with increasing forward speed during the next several days.
 Near the end of the forecast, model guidance is showing a stronger
 ridge, and a westward turn is possible.  The guidance envelope has
 shifted southward on this cycle, and the official NHC prediction is
 adjusted in that direction.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  05/0300Z 16.7N 120.1W  110 KT 125 MPH
  12H  05/1200Z 16.9N 121.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
  24H  06/0000Z 17.5N 124.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
  36H  06/1200Z 18.2N 126.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
  48H  07/0000Z 19.1N 129.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
  72H  08/0000Z 20.9N 135.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
  96H  09/0000Z 22.0N 140.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 120H  10/0000Z 22.5N 145.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Blake
 
 
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