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 439 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 042034
 TCDEP2
 
 Hurricane Olivia Discussion Number  16
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018
 200 PM PDT Tue Sep 04 2018
 
 Olivia has continued to strengthen and now has a well-defined 15-20
 n mi wide eye inside a central dense overcast.  A complex of outer
 bands is also occurring in the southwestern semicircle.  The various
 satellite intensity estimates have increased into the 100-110 kt
 range, and thus the initial intensity is increased to 105 kt.  It
 should be noted that the current intensification has occurred in an
 apparent environment of 10-20 kt of easterly vertical wind shear,
 as indicated by the SHIPS model and analyses from CIMSS.
 
 As with the earlier forecast, how much additional intensification
 will occur is uncertain.  The intensity guidance suggests that
 continued shear and decreasing sea surface temperatures along the
 forecast track will allow 12 h or less of additional strengthening,
 and the guidance again forecasts only modest strengthening during
 this time.  Given the persistence of the rapid intensification, the
 intensity forecast will not stop intensification that abruptly, and
 it now calls for a peak intensity of 110 kt in 12 h at the upper
 edge of the intensity guidance.  It is still possible that Olivia
 could get stronger than this.  After 12-24 h, the cooler sea surface
 temperatures and entrainment of dry air should cause gradual
 weakening even though the shear is forecast to decrease. This part
 of the intensity forecast lies a little above the intensity
 consensus.
 
 The initial motion is 270/10, and the short-term motion may be a
 little to the south of due west.  As noted previously, a
 building subtropical ridge over the eastern Pacific is forecast
 to induce a westward and west-northwestward motion with an
 increasing forward speed during the next several days.  Near the
 end of the forecast period, a more westward motion is possible.
 The model guidance again supports this scenario with a tight
 clustering, and the new NHC track forecast is similar to, but
 slightly south of the previous forecast.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  04/2100Z 16.9N 119.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
  12H  05/0600Z 17.0N 120.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
  24H  05/1800Z 17.4N 123.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
  36H  06/0600Z 18.1N 125.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
  48H  06/1800Z 19.0N 128.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
  72H  07/1800Z 21.0N 134.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
  96H  08/1800Z 22.5N 139.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 120H  09/1800Z 23.0N 144.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Beven
 
 
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