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 233 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 041440
 TCDEP2
 
 Hurricane Olivia Discussion Number  15
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018
 800 AM PDT Tue Sep 04 2018
 
 Olivia has become better organized since the last advisory, with
 conventional satellite imagery indicating the formation of a 25 n
 mi wide eye and a surrounding cold ring of cloud tops in the
 eyewall.  Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have
 increased to 90 kt, and that will be the initial intensity for this
 advisory.  This burst of rapid intensification has occurred even
 though the analyzed easterly shear in the SHIPS model and analyses
 from CIMSS is in the 15-20 kt range.
 
 How much additional intensification will occur is uncertain.  The
 intensity guidance suggests that continued shear and decreasing sea
 surface temperatures along the forecast track will allow only about
 12 h of additional strengthening, and most of the guidance forecasts
 only modest strengthening during this time.  However, it is unlikely
 that the current rapid intensification will stop that quickly.
 Based on this, the new intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity
 of 100 kt in 12 h at the upper edge of the intensity guidance, and
 it is possible Olivia could get stronger.  After 24 h, the cooler
 sea surface temperatures and entrainment of dry air should cause a
 gradual weakening even though the shear is forecast to decrease.
 
 The initial motion remains 275/10.  As noted previously, a
 building subtropical ridge over the eastern Pacific is forecast
 to induce a westward and west-northwestward motion with increasing
 forward speed during the next several days.  The model guidance
 supports this scenario with a tight clustering, and the new NHC
 track forecast is again an update of the previous forecast.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  04/1500Z 17.0N 118.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
  12H  05/0000Z 17.2N 119.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
  24H  05/1200Z 17.4N 122.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
  36H  06/0000Z 18.0N 124.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
  48H  06/1200Z 18.8N 127.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
  72H  07/1200Z 20.5N 133.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
  96H  08/1200Z 22.0N 138.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 120H  09/1200Z 23.0N 143.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Beven
 
 
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