500 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 040845
 TCDEP2
 
 Hurricane Olivia Discussion Number  14
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018
 200 AM PDT Tue Sep 04 2018
 
 A recent SSMIS overpass indicated a banding eye inner core
 structure with improved deep convective outer bands over the
 southern semicircle.  A 0432 UTC ASCAT-B scatterometer pass was
 used to adjust the wind radii for this advisory package.  A blend
 of the subjective satellite intensity estimates support a slight
 initial intensity increase to 70 kt.
 
 Olivia has about 24-36 hours or so remaining over warm SSTs with
 marginally favorable upper wind conditions.  Therefore strengthening
 is forecast for the next day or so, similar to the HCCA and IVCN
 consensus models.  After that time, The cyclone is expected to
 traverse slightly cooler oceanic surface temperatures, and gradual
 weakening is indicated through day 5.  The NHC forecast is based on
 the above consensus models and is similar to the previous advisory.
 
 The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 275/10 kt.  A
 building subtropical ridge over the eastern Pacific is forecast
 to induce a westward and west-northwestward motion with
 increasing forward speed during the next several days.  The model
 guidance is tightly packed on this solution, and the latest NHC
 track forecast is basically just an update of the previous
 prediction.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  04/0900Z 16.9N 117.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
  12H  04/1800Z 17.0N 118.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
  24H  05/0600Z 17.2N 120.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
  36H  05/1800Z 17.7N 123.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
  48H  06/0600Z 18.4N 125.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
  72H  07/0600Z 20.1N 131.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
  96H  08/0600Z 21.9N 137.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 120H  09/0600Z 23.0N 142.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Roberts