920 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 040233
 TCDEP2
 
 Hurricane Olivia Discussion Number  13
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018
 800 PM PDT Mon Sep 03 2018
 
 Olivia continues to strengthen with convection deepening near the
 center, and the latest microwave passes show a nearly complete
 eyewall underneath the central dense overcast.  Dvorak estimates
 from TAFB/SAB are a consensus 65 kt, and that will be the initial
 wind speed.
 
 A bit surprisingly, Olivia has intensified 25 kt over the past 24
 hours.  The current northeasterly shear apparently has not been
 enough to cause the strengthening rate to decrease, although some
 models are still suggesting the shear will disrupt the hurricane
 over the next couple of days.  After inspecting the environmental
 winds, it appears that most of the shear will avoid the inner core,
 so the official forecast is raised from the previous one, lying near
 the upper edge of the guidance.  This forecast still feels a bit
 conservative, given the explosive nature of many of the 2018
 eastern Pacific cyclones.  Olivia should move over more marginal
 waters in a few days, and a gradual weakening is indicated at long
 range.
 
 A gradual acceleration continues with Olivia, now moving westward
 at about 8 kt.  A strengthening ridge over the eastern Pacific
 should steer the cyclone westward and west-northwestward at an
 increasing forward pace over the next several days.  The model
 guidance is tightly packed on this solution, and the latest NHC
 track forecast is basically just an update of the previous
 prediction.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  04/0300Z 16.8N 116.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
  12H  04/1200Z 16.9N 117.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
  24H  05/0000Z 17.1N 119.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
  36H  05/1200Z 17.4N 121.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
  48H  06/0000Z 18.0N 124.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
  72H  07/0000Z 19.7N 129.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
  96H  08/0000Z 21.5N 135.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 120H  09/0000Z 23.0N 140.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Blake