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 871 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 032035
 TCDEP2
 
 Tropical Storm Olivia Discussion Number  12
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018
 200 PM PDT Mon Sep 03 2018
 
 A ragged eye has formed with Olivia during the past several hours,
 although the convection on the northern side isn't very persistent.
 Microwave data indicate that an eyewall is mostly formed beneath the
 central dense overcast, albeit rather thin.  Intensity estimates
 continue to rise and support 60 kt for this advisory.
 
 Olivia has a few days remaining over warm waters with light or
 moderate shear in the forecast.  Similar to a situation with Hector
 about a month ago, the shear might be misdiagnosed in the SHIPS
 model, with the bulk of the shear likely coming from northeasterly
 winds that avoid the core of the cyclone.  Thus, steady
 strengthening is expected, and if the inner core becomes more
 established, rapid intensification is a possibility.  The intensity
 forecast is raised from the previous one, but remains below the
 higher corrected-consensus aids. Olivia should move over more
 marginal waters in a few days, and a gradual weakening is indicated
 at long range.
 
 Recent fixes show that Olivia is moving westward at about 7 kt.  The
 storm should move faster toward the west and eventually toward the
 west-northwest during the next several days as it is steered by a
 strong ridge over the eastern Pacific Ocean.  This appears to be a
 high-confidence forecast since the model spread is fairly small, and
 the only adjustment needed to the previous forecast is a slight
 southward change at day 5.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  03/2100Z 16.6N 115.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
  12H  04/0600Z 16.7N 116.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
  24H  04/1800Z 16.8N 118.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
  36H  05/0600Z 17.0N 120.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
  48H  05/1800Z 17.5N 123.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
  72H  06/1800Z 19.0N 128.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
  96H  07/1800Z 20.7N 133.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 120H  08/1800Z 22.0N 139.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Blake
 
 
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