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 273 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 031440
 TCDEP2
 
 Tropical Storm Olivia Discussion Number  11
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018
 900 AM MDT Mon Sep 03 2018
 
 There has been a pretty significant change with Olivia overnight,
 with the center either moving into or reforming southward under the
 central dense overcast.  Microwave data indicate that a developing
 inner core is present as well, along with a notable increase in
 curved banding.  Subjective Dvorak estimates have risen to 55 kt,
 which agrees well with the latest CIMSS-SATCON estimates, so the
 initial wind speed is raised to that value.
 
 While the cyclone remains over warm water for the next couple of
 days, northeasterly shear is forecast to persist, which should keep
 the intensification rates of the cyclone in check, along with some
 mid-level dry air.  Slow strengthening seems most likely, and the
 official forecast is raised from the previous one, mostly due to the
 higher initial intensity.  It should be noted that the corrected-
 consensus guidance is even higher, so the intensity forecast could
 be conservative.  Olivia should move over more marginal waters in a
 few days, and a gradual weakening is indicated at long range.
 
 Olivia appears to be moving westward at about 6 kt, but this is
 pretty uncertain due to the recent center jump.  The storm should
 move faster toward the west and eventually toward the west-
 northwest during the next several days as it encounters a strong
 ridge over the eastern Pacific Ocean.  Almost all of the guidance is
 south of the previous model cycle, which is consistent with a
 stronger cyclone feeling the effects of a deep-layer ridge, so the
 latest NHC forecast is shifted in that direction.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  03/1500Z 16.5N 114.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
  12H  04/0000Z 16.5N 115.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
  24H  04/1200Z 16.6N 117.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
  36H  05/0000Z 16.9N 119.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
  48H  05/1200Z 17.3N 121.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
  72H  06/1200Z 18.6N 126.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
  96H  07/1200Z 20.3N 132.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 120H  08/1200Z 22.0N 138.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Blake
 
 
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