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 056 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 030845
 TCDEP2
 
 Tropical Storm Olivia Discussion Number  10
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018
 300 AM MDT Mon Sep 03 2018
 
 10 to 15 kt of northeasterly shear, noted by the UW-CIMSS shear
 analysis and the Decay SHIPS Intensity model, continues to impede
 Olivia's cloud pattern.  A blend of the Dvorak satellite intensity
 estimates from TAFB and SAB, and an earlier SATCON estimate support
 holding the initial intensity at 40 kt.
 
 Only modest short-term strengthening is expected over the next day
 or so due to the persistent shear.  Afterwards, a weakening trend
 should commence as a result of stronger shear, decreasing sea
 surface temperatures, and a less than favorable thermodynamic
 environment.  It's worth noting, however, that the Decay SHIPS
 indicates a longer, slower intensification period through day 3,
 while the better performing IVCN and NOAA-HCCA intensity consensus
 guidance reflect a shorter period of intensification, only 24 hours,
 followed by a weakening trend through day 5.  Subsequently, these
 models no longer indicate that Olivia will become a hurricane, and
 neither does the official forecast.  A compromise of the previous
 advisory, and a blend of the consensus models was used as a basis
 for this advisory.
 
 The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 280/6 kt.
 Olivia should continue moving westward during the next couple of
 days within the mid-level steering flow of a strengthening ridge to
 the north.  By day 3, Olivia should turn back toward the
 west-northwest as it rounds the southwestern periphery of the
 ridge.  Only a minor adjustment to the south of the previous
 advisory was made in accord with the various consensus models.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  03/0900Z 17.1N 114.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  03/1800Z 17.2N 115.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  04/0600Z 17.3N 116.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
  36H  04/1800Z 17.5N 118.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
  48H  05/0600Z 17.9N 120.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
  72H  06/0600Z 19.1N 124.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
  96H  07/0600Z 20.7N 130.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 120H  08/0600Z 22.1N 135.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Roberts
 
 
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