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 930 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 030239
 TCDEP2
 
 Tropical Storm Olivia Discussion Number   9
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018
 900 PM MDT Sun Sep 02 2018
 
 Olivia remains sheared, however the deep convection has inched a
 little closer to the center this evening.  The latest satellite
 intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 35 and 45 kt,
 respectively.  Those estimates, along with the earlier ASCAT data,
 support maintaining an initial intensity of 40 kt.  The tropical
 cyclone is expected to remain under the influence of moderate
 northeasterly shear during the next several days, however, most of
 the intensity guidance insists on some intensification while the
 system moves over warm waters.  The new NHC intensity forecast is
 slightly higher than the previous advisory through 24 hours, but it
 is similar to the earlier forecast by showing Olivia attaining
 hurricane status in a couple of days.  There is a large difference
 between the latest statistical guidance and the dynamical hurricane
 models, with the latter being much more aggressive in strengthening
 Olivia.  Given the current structure of the storm and the lower
 statistical guidance, the NHC forecast splits the difference and is
 close to the consensus guidance.  Later in the period cooler waters
 and a more stable airmass should cause the system to weaken.
 
 Olivia is moving slowly west-northwestward or 295/4 kt. The track
 forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous NHC
 advisory.  The tropical storm should turn westward as a ridge
 builds to the north of the system within the next couple of days.
 After midweek, Olivia should turn back toward the west-northwest as
 it reaches the western portion of the ridge.  There continues to be
 some spread in the track guidance, and the NHC forecast is once
 again near the model consensus to account for the differences.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  03/0300Z 17.1N 113.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  03/1200Z 17.3N 114.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  04/0000Z 17.6N 115.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
  36H  04/1200Z 17.8N 117.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
  48H  05/0000Z 18.0N 119.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
  72H  06/0000Z 19.3N 123.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
  96H  07/0000Z 20.8N 129.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 120H  08/0000Z 22.3N 135.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brown
 
 
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