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 407 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 022039
 TCDEP2
 
 Tropical Storm Olivia Discussion Number   8
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018
 300 PM MDT Sun Sep 02 2018
 
 Olivia remains a sheared tropical cyclone with the low-level center
 located to the north and northeast of the large area of deep
 convection.  Recent ASCAT data revealed a large area of 35-40 kt
 winds over the southeastern portion of Olivia's circulation, and is
 the basis for the initial wind speed of 40 kt.  The global models
 suggest that the northeasterly shear over the cyclone will not
 abate as quickly as previous indicated, and much of the intensity
 guidance shows less strengthening than before.  The NHC wind speed
 forecast has been lowered to be close to the intensity consensus,
 but it is not as low as the statistical guidance in order to
 maintain consistency with the previous official forecast. Olivia is
 foreast to reach cooler waters around day 4 and the tropical
 cyclone should weaken by that time.
 
 The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward or 300/6 kt.
 Olivia should turn westward as a large ridge builds to the north of
 the system within the next couple of days. After midweek, Olivia
 should turn back toward the west-northwest as it reaches the
 western portion of the ridge.  The dynamical model guidance
 generally agrees with this overall scenario, but there is
 cross-track spread regarding how much latitude the system
 gains over the next couple of days.  The NHC track is near the
 various consensus aids and the GFS ensemble mean, but it is not as
 far north as the latest run of the ECMWF that takes Olivia
 more northwestward during the next 12 to 24 hours.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  02/2100Z 17.0N 113.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  03/0600Z 17.4N 114.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  03/1800Z 17.7N 115.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
  36H  04/0600Z 17.9N 116.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
  48H  04/1800Z 18.1N 118.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
  72H  05/1800Z 19.0N 123.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
  96H  06/1800Z 20.6N 128.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 120H  07/1800Z 22.3N 134.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brown
 
 
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