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 576 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 021436
 TCDEP2
 
 Tropical Storm Olivia Discussion Number   7
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018
 900 AM MDT Sun Sep 02 2018
 
 Olivia is a sheared cyclone with the low-level center well removed
 to the north of the convection. If it wasn't for the earlier
 scatterometer, it would be difficult to assign an intensity of 40
 kt at this time. In fact, Dvorak numbers do not support such wind
 speeds. For continuity reasons, however, this is the assigned
 intensity until new data become available.
 
 Olivia is currently embedded in a hostile shear environment, but the
 global models forecast a change to a more favorable upper-level wind
 pattern soon.  On this basis, the NHC forecast calls for Olivia to
 begin strengthening tonight or early Monday, and reach hurricane
 status in about 36 hours. This forecast is not different from the
 previous one and follows the intensity consensus IVCN.
 
 The circulation continues to be elongated, making it more difficult
 to estimate the initial motion. The best estimate is toward the
 northwest or 315 degrees at 6 kt. Most of the global models develop
 a ridge to the north of the cyclone, and this flow pattern will
 force Olivia to turn toward the west-northwest and west with some
 increase in forward speed.  Track guidance is clustered, and is
 fairly consistent with the turn to the west. The NHC forecast
 continues to be very close to the corrected consensus HCCA.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  02/1500Z 17.0N 112.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  03/0000Z 17.7N 113.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  03/1200Z 18.2N 114.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
  36H  04/0000Z 18.2N 115.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
  48H  04/1200Z 18.3N 117.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
  72H  05/1200Z 19.0N 121.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
  96H  06/1200Z 20.5N 126.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 120H  07/1200Z 22.0N 132.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila
 
 
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