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 837 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 020851
 TCDEP2
 
 Tropical Storm Olivia Discussion Number   6
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018
 300 AM MDT Sun Sep 02 2018
 
 The tropical cyclone's convection is still not well organized, and
 the cloud pattern consists of an irregularly shaped CDO-like
 feature with limited banding.  Nonetheless, a couple of
 scatterometer overpasses showed that the cyclone had winds to around
 40 kt over the southern semicircle of the circulation.  Therefore
 the system is being named, and the aforementioned wind speed will be
 used for the advisory intensity.  The north-northeasterly shear
 that has been affecting the storm is expected to abate somewhat,
 which would allow for further strengthening.  The official
 intensity forecast is in line with the latest numerical model
 consensus, IVCN.  Some of the models show more rapid strengthening
 during the next day or two, but this does not seem likely at this
 time since the system is still not very well organized and some
 shear is expected to continue affecting it.
 
 The center was somewhat elongated in the scatterometer data, but
 appeared to be located a little north of the previous working best
 track.  The initial motion is a rather uncertain 300/8 kt.  A weak
 mid-level ridge to the north of Olivia should lead to a slow
 west-northwestward to northwestward motion over the next day or two.
 Thereafter, a strengthening ridge is likely to cause a turn toward
 the west with some increase in forward speed.  Late in the forecast
 period, the dynamical model consensus indicates a turn back to the
 west-northwest.  The official track forecast is a little north of
 the previous one, mainly due to the recent re-positioning of the
 center.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  02/0900Z 16.0N 112.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  02/1800Z 16.6N 112.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  03/0600Z 17.2N 113.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
  36H  03/1800Z 17.5N 114.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
  48H  04/0600Z 17.6N 116.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
  72H  05/0600Z 17.7N 120.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
  96H  06/0600Z 19.0N 124.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 120H  07/0600Z 20.5N 130.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Pasch
 
 
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