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 WTPZ42 KNHC 020231
 Tropical Depression Seventeen-E Discussion Number   5
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018
 900 PM MDT Sat Sep 01 2018
 Satellite data indicate that the cyclone remains elongated from
 northeast to southwest with the low-level center estimated to be on
 the northeastern side of the main area of deep convection.  Even
 though the latest satellite intensity estimates suggest that the
 system could be a tropical storm, the initial wind speed is held at
 30 kt since the structure of the depression is not well organized.
 This wind speed estimate is in agreement with an earlier ASCAT pass.
 The depression is moving west-northwestward at 9 kt.  The models
 insist that the cyclone will slow down during the next day or two
 while it lies to the south of a weakness in the subtropical ridge.
 After that time, the subtropical ridge is expected to build to the
 north of the depression, and that should cause it to move faster and
 turn toward the west.  Only small changes were made to the previous
 forecast track and it remains on the southern side of the guidance
 envelope in the short term, as many of the models show the
 depression turning abruptly northward possibly due to the
 reformation of the center.  For now, the NHC track forecast assumes
 that the center will not reform, but northward adjustments could be
 required if that does occur.
 The northeasterly shear that is currently affecting the depression
 is expected to let up some during the next couple of days, which
 should allow the system to at least gradually strengthen.  However,
 the intensity models are less aggressive this cycle, leaving the
 previous forecast at the upper bound of the guidance envelope at
 the longer forecast times.  The new NHC intensity forecast is
 largely an update of the previous one, except a little lower at the
 longer range to trend toward the latest guidance.  The confidence in
 the intensity forecast is low because of the run-to-run variability
 in the model guidance.
 INIT  02/0300Z 15.2N 111.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  02/1200Z 15.7N 112.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  03/0000Z 16.2N 113.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  03/1200Z 16.6N 115.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
  48H  04/0000Z 16.7N 116.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
  72H  05/0000Z 16.8N 119.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
  96H  06/0000Z 17.5N 124.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 120H  07/0000Z 19.0N 129.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 Forecaster Cangialosi
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