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 368 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 011502
 TCDEP2
 
 Tropical Depression Seventeen-E Discussion Number   3
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018
 900 AM MDT Sat Sep 01 2018
 
 A 0914Z AMSR microwave pass indicated that the low-level circulation
 remains elongated northeast-to-southwest, with the alleged center
 positioned northeast of the deepest convection. Although cloud tops
 have cooled significant since the previous advisory, microwave
 data indicate that the convection remains loosely organized
 underneath the dense cirrus canopy. The initial intensity remains
 30 kt for this advisory, which is just below the various satellite
 intensity estimates.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 290/08 kt. Although the center is
 somewhat ill-defined, the models remain remarkably in good
 agreement on the cyclone moving west-northwestward for the next
 24-36 h, and then turning westward as the system encounters a
 strong subtropical ridge extending westward from central Mexico
 across the eastern North Pacific. The NHC new track forecast is
 similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to the HCCA
 and FSSE consensus models.
 
  The ECMWF model is forecasting the shear along the cyclone's track
 to decrease to less than 10 kt by 12 h and beyond. The combination
 of the low shear and warm waters beneath the cyclone supports at
 least steady strengthening. The only hindering factor early on is
 when the inner-core wind field finally contracts and becomes better
 defined to allow for more significant intensification to begin. The
 intensity forecast follows the consensus models HCCA and IVCN.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  01/1500Z 14.9N 110.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  02/0000Z 15.3N 110.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  02/1200Z 15.7N 111.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  03/0000Z 16.2N 112.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  03/1200Z 16.4N 113.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
  72H  04/1200Z 16.4N 116.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
  96H  05/1200Z 16.8N 120.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 120H  06/1200Z 18.0N 125.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Stewart
 
 
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