174 
 WTPA45 PHFO 132045
 TCDCP5
  
 Tropical Depression Olivia Discussion Number  53
 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP172018
 1100 AM HST Thu Sep 13 2018
  
 Strong westerly vertical wind shear of more than 30 kt continues to
 displace deep convection to the northeast of Olivia's exposed
 low-level center. However, this convection has become more vigorous
 and closer to the center this morning. Subjective Dvorak current
 intensity estimates came in at 2.0 from HFO and 1.5 from JTWC, while
 CIMSS ADT is holding the system at 1.5. Given the recent trend in
 convection, we will maintain Olivia as a 30 kt tropical depression.
 
 The initial motion is set at west-southwest (240 degrees) at 12 kt.
 As the latest burst of convection built toward the the low-level
 center, a deceleration and southwesterly turn in the short-term
 motion occurred as the weak center was drawn toward the convection.
 A more westerly motion is expected to resume later today as the
 system is steered by the low-level trade wind flow produced by a
 low- to mid-level ridge sitting far to the north. A digging
 upper-level trough just north of Olivia will maintain strong
 vertical wind shear that should weaken the system. As these features
 continue to interact, Olivia is expected to become a post-tropical
 remnant low tonight. This shallow system will move west on Friday
 then turn toward the west-northwest until dissipation during the
 weekend. The track forecast was shifted south from the prior
 advisory to account for the recent trend in motion. This track
 favors the GFS and CTCI, which lie nearer to the southern end of the
 guidance envelope. The intensity forecast closely follows the
 statistical guidance of SHIPS and LGEM, which weaken the system
 faster than most dynamical guidance.  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  13/2100Z 18.7N 163.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  14/0600Z 18.4N 165.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  24H  14/1800Z 18.5N 167.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  15/0600Z 19.1N 169.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  15/1800Z 20.3N 172.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  16/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 Forecaster Wroe