579 
 WTPA45 PHFO 130900
 TCDCP5
  
 Tropical Depression Olivia Discussion Number  51
 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP172018
 1100 PM HST Wed Sep 12 2018
  
 The exposed low-level circulation center (LLCC) of Olivia continues
 to track rapidly away from the main Hawaiian Islands this evening. 
 A few thunderstorms and towering cumulus clouds continue to pop up
 in the northeast quadrant far away from the LLCC, but the coverage
 was not great enough to allow any of the fix agencies to classify
 Olivia. Therefore, the latest subjective Dvorak current intensity
 estimate was 2.0/30 kt from PHFO and JTWC. The UW-CIMSS ADT was also
 2.0/30 kt. Therefore, the initial intensity will be lowered to 30 kt
 for this advisory. Olivia is expected to remain a tropical
 depression through Thursday evening. We continue to indicate it will
 become a post-tropical remnant low starting Thursday night or
 Friday.
  
 Olivia has been able to stabilize its motion now that it has moved 
 far away from the mountainous terrain of the main Hawaiian Islands,
 which likely caused much of the erratic motion observed earlier
 today. The initial motion for this advisory is 255/16 kt. The LLCC
 is being steered by the low-level trade wind flow. A general
 west-southwest motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is
 forecast through early Thursday. Olivia will then turn toward the
 west, and then the west-northwest as the system increasingly
 interacts with an upper-level low responsible for the wind shear.
 The latest track forecast is close to the previous through 36 hours.
 After that, the track of the depression, or its remnant low, has
 been adjusted to the right of the previous forecast. This is close
 to the TVCE and HCCA, and remains near the middle of the guidance
 envelope.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  13/0900Z 20.0N 160.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  13/1800Z 19.5N 162.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  14/0600Z 19.4N 165.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  14/1800Z 19.9N 167.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  15/0600Z 20.4N 170.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  16/0600Z 22.5N 175.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  17/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 Forecaster Houston