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 657 
 WTPA45 PHFO 130238
 TCDCP5
  
 Tropical Storm Olivia Discussion Number  50
 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP172018
 500 PM HST Wed Sep 12 2018
  
 Persistent southwesterly vertical wind shear of about 35 kt and
 earlier interaction with the terrain of Maui County are weakening
 Olivia. A diminishing amount of deep convection is now displaced
 over 75 nautical miles to the northeast of the center, which has
 become completely exposed, and velocity data from the Molokai
 WSR-88D radar have declined over the islands this afternoon.
 Subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates ranged from 2.0/30 kt
 from SAB and JTWC to 2.5/35 kt at HFO. Thus, the initial intensity
 will be lowered to 35 kt. 
 
 The erratic motion of Olivia is expected to stabilize overnight. The
 center accelerated westward in the low level trade wind flow, with
 the initial motion nearly doubling to west-southwest (255 degrees)
 at 17 kt. A general west-southwest motion with a slight loss of
 forward speed will occur into Friday as Olivia is steered mainly by
 the low-level trade wind flow. Olivia will then turn toward the
 west-northwest as the system increasingly interacts with the upper
 low responsible for the wind shear. The track forecast includes an
 increase in forward speed and significant shift to the south
 compared to the prior advisory in the short term, with little change
 thereafter. The track forecast lies near TVCE and HCCA and is near
 the middle of the guidance envelope, which is rather tightly
 clustered through 48 hours, then has increasing spread beyond.
 
 Olivia is expected to continue weakening. The system is hanging on
 to tropical storm status, and given the persistent vertical wind
 shear and displacement of the deep convection, Olivia is expected to
 become a tropical depression by tonight or early Thursday, then
 become a post-tropical remnant low on Thursday night or Friday. This
 could occur sooner if deep convection fails to redevelop near the
 center of Olivia. The intensity forecast is closest to SHIPS. Some
 guidance members are intensifying Olivia beyond 72 hours as it
 potentially moves under the core of the upper low, but the forecast
 assumes that Olivia will not survive as a tropical cyclone long
 enough for this to occur.
 
 Due to the weakening trend, acceleration, and southward shift of the
 track, tropical-storm-force winds have cleared Maui County and Oahu.
 As a result, the Tropical Storm Warning for these islands has been
 discontinued. 
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  13/0300Z 20.1N 159.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  13/1200Z 19.7N 161.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  14/0000Z 19.4N 164.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  14/1200Z 19.5N 166.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  15/0000Z 19.8N 169.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  16/0000Z 21.2N 174.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  17/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 Forecaster Wroe
  
 
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