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 735 
 WTPA45 PHFO 122056
 TCDCP5
  
 Tropical Storm Olivia Discussion Number  49
 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP172018
 1100 AM HST Wed Sep 12 2018
  
 The partially exposed low-level center of Olivia made landfall over
 northwest Maui at approximately 1910 UTC (910 AM HST), then exited
 Maui to the west to make another landfall on the island of Lanai
 around 1954 UTC (954 AM HST). Deep convection continues to pulse to
 the north and northeast of the center of Olivia, as the system
 remains under strong westerly vertical wind shear of 30 kt.
 Subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates ranged from 2.0/30 kt
 from SAB and JTWC to 2.5/35 kt at HFO. However, WSR-88D velocity
 data from Molokai has been consistently showing velocities of 50 kt
 to the north of the center around 5,000 ft, and there has been
 little change in the satellite presentation since last night. Thus,
 the initial intensity will be maintained at 40 kt. 
 
 The motion has become west (265 degrees) and increased to a
 short-term average of 13 kt. As strong wind shear persists and
 Olivia interacts with the high terrain of Molokai and Maui, the
 system is expected to weaken, which will likely maintain an erratic
 motion through the afternoon. However, a turn toward the
 west-southwest is expected as the weaker system becomes increasingly
 steered by the low-level trade wind flow. This motion will continue
 into Friday, followed by a turn toward west or west-northwest
 thereafter as Olivia interacts with the upper low responsible for
 the wind shear. The forecast track was nudged slightly north of the
 last advisory and lies near GFEX and TVCE in the middle of a tightly
 clustered guidance envelope during the initial 48 hours, with
 increasing spread beyond. Olivia is forecast to become a tropical
 depression by Thursday and a post-tropical remnant low on Friday.
 This could occur sooner if Olivia is significantly weakened by
 island terrain. The intensity forecast closely follows SHIPS, which
 is slightly more aggressive in the weakening of Olivia than the
 other statistical and dynamical guidance.
  
  
 Key Messages:
  
 1. Flooding rainfall, high surf, and damaging winds are expected in
 the warning area. Significant impacts can occur well away from the
 center, especially when considering that the mountainous terrain of
 Hawaii can produce localized areas of strongly enhanced wind gusts
 and rainfall.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  12/2100Z 20.9N 157.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  13/0600Z 20.6N 159.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  13/1800Z 20.1N 161.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  14/0600Z 19.9N 164.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  48H  14/1800Z 20.0N 167.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  15/1800Z 21.2N 172.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  16/1800Z 22.5N 176.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  17/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 Forecaster Wroe
  
 
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