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 535 
 WTPA45 PHFO 120312
 TCDCP5
  
 Tropical Storm Olivia Discussion Number  46
 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP172018
 500 PM HST Tue Sep 11 2018
  
 Olivia's low level circulation center (LLCC) continues to outrun
 the bands of deep convection now well to the east of the center.
 Without any new deep convection near the center, the wind field
 continues to gradually spin down. However, the 53rd Weather
 Reconnaissance Squadron found SFMR winds of 42 kt in the northeast
 quadrant. Thus, the current intensity has been lowered to 45 kt for
 this advisory. This also agrees well with an earlier 1939 UTC ASCAT
 pass that covered part of the tropical cyclone. 
 
 The motion has been very erratic today. As the LLCC decoupled from 
 the deep convection, it accelerated rapidly westward. Since about 
 2000 UTC, this motion has been quite a bit slower and toward the 
 southwest. Averaging this out to a representative motion gives 
 260/13. Erratic motion is likely to continue overnight as the now 
 shallow circulation of Olivia encounters terrain, but a general
 west-southwest motion is expected. If Olivia's LLCC survives the
 passage near the island terrain (and this is a big if), the center
 is expected to continue moving toward the west-southwest through 48 
 hours. A more westward motion is expected to begin by 72 hours and 
 beyond as the deep layer ridge west of Olivia weakens and an mid-
 level low digs southwest toward the cyclone.
 
 Our intensity forecast operates under the assumption that the low 
 level circulation center will be intact after emerging to the 
 southwest of Maui and the Big Island. If this occurs, gradual 
 weakening is expected to continue in line with all the guidance 
 which shows moderate to strong shear continuing through the
 forecast period. Olivia is expected to become a remnant low within
 72 hours, but there is a decent chance this will happen even
 sooner. 
 
 Key Messages:
  
 1. As Olivia moves across the main Hawaiian Islands, it still bring
 worse impacts than recent Hurricane Lane to some areas. Those
 impacts could include flooding rainfall, damaging winds, and
 large and dangerous surf.
  
 2. Significant impacts can occur well away from the center. In
 particular, the mountainous terrain of Hawaii can produce localized
 areas of strongly enhanced wind gusts and rainfall.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  12/0300Z 20.9N 154.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  12/1200Z 20.4N 156.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  13/0000Z 19.6N 158.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  13/1200Z 19.1N 161.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
  48H  14/0000Z 18.8N 164.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
  72H  15/0000Z 19.0N 169.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  16/0000Z 19.8N 172.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 
 120H  17/0000Z 20.9N 176.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  
 $$
 Forecaster R Ballard
  
 
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