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 975 
 WTPA45 PHFO 112112
 TCDCP5
  
 Tropical Storm Olivia Discussion Number  45
 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP172018
 1100 AM HST Tue Sep 11 2018
  
 The exposed low level circulation center (LLCC) of Olivia has been 
 evident on visible satellite imagery this morning, outrunning the 
 remaining deep convection sheared well to the east of the center. 
 The surface dropsonde pressures from the Air Force Reserve
 Hurricane Hunters were both 1007 mb, but these were a bit displaced
 from the LLCC. The maximum SFMR winds were 45 kt in the northeast
 quadrant, and so the initial intensity has been set to 50 kt. 
 
 As we often see when the LLCC definitively seperates from the deep
 convection, the motion can change rather drastically. The initial
 motion estimate is 270/15 but the short term motion appears to be
 even faster. Although the dynamical model track forecast guidance
 remains tightly clustered, the motion of the LLCC actually appears
 to be best in line with the TABS. Although the forecast philosophy
 has not changed overall, I have sped up the forecast track and
 shifted it to the right slightly in deference to the initial motion,
 now a blend between the tightly packed dynamical consensus and TABS.
 This change to the track and speed necessitates the issuance of a 
 Tropical Storm Warning for Kauai. Seeing as how the wind field on 
 the south side of Olivia is rather compact, it is possible we may
 be able to discontinue the Tropical Storm Warning for the Big
 Island later today if the westward motion continues.
 
 The increasing shear over Olivia makes reintensification in the
 near term quite unlikely, and the intensity forecast follows the
 tightly clustered guidance. New deep convection may begin to form
 near the center in 48 hours or so as an cold core upper low develops
 to the north of Olivia and digs southwest. This may halt the
 weakening trend, but at this point the cyclone is expected to lose
 tropical characteristics or become subtropical.
 
  
 Key Messages:
  
 1. Although Olivia is expected to move over the islands as a
 tropical storm, it could still bring worse impacts than recent
 Hurricane Lane to some areas. Those impacts could include flooding
 rainfall, damaging winds, and large and dangerous surf.
  
 2. It is important to not focus on the exact forecast track
 and intensity when planning for Olivia. Regardless of the track
 that Olivia takes as it approaches the islands, significant impacts
 can be expected away from the center. In particular, the
 mountainous terrain of Hawaii can produce localized areas of
 strongly enhanced wind gusts and rainfall.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  11/2100Z 21.6N 152.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
  12H  12/0600Z 21.4N 155.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  12/1800Z 20.7N 157.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  13/0600Z 20.0N 160.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
  48H  13/1800Z 19.5N 163.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
  72H  14/1800Z 19.6N 167.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
  96H  15/1800Z 20.6N 170.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 120H  16/1800Z 21.5N 175.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  
 $$
 Forecaster R Ballard
  
 
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