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 390 
 WTPA45 PHFO 110315
 TCDCP5
  
 Tropical Storm Olivia Discussion Number  42
 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP172018
 500 PM HST Mon Sep 10 2018
  
 Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters indicated that Olivia was on a 
 slow weakening trend as they departed the tropical cyclone earlier 
 this afternoon. Bursts of convection have been occurring, but an 
 0058 UTC SSMI and 0155 UTC AMSU pass are showing disorganized 
 banding mainly to the northeast of the center. This seems to 
 indicate that Olivia is beginning to feel the effects of stronger 
 shear. There was a fairly wide spread of satellite intensity 
 estimates. However, used a blend of these along with the recent 
 reconnaissance data to come up with the intensity estimate of 60 kt.
 
 Olivia has been moving 280/9 over the last few hours. This slightly 
 north-of-west motion may be due to the tropical cyclone beginning
 to feel the effects of the increasing shear. All reliable track
 guidance are unanimous in maintaining a westward motion overnight,
 then a slightly south of due west motion is expected to begin in 12
 to 24 hours, as a very strong deep layer ridge develops west of the
 main Hawaiian Islands. Beyond 72 hours, an upper level low is
 expected to develop to the north of Olivia and drop south. This
 upper low is expected to impart a west-northwest motion on the
 tropical cyclone, and in fact the two systems may merge in four to
 five days, if enough of the low level circulation remains in the
 face of strong shear.
 
 Shear is expected to increase over the next 24 to 48 hours as
 Olivia continues generally westward. Even though the sea surface 
 temperatures warm to greater than 28C along the track beyond 48 
 hours, the shear should allow weakening to continue. The intensity 
 guidance has been backing off on the weakening trend some in the 3 
 to 5 day time period, likely due to interaction with the upper low. 
 Toward the end of the forecast period, Olivia may be starting to 
 lose tropical characteristics. 
  
 KEY MESSAGES:
  
 1.  Resist the temptation to make comparisons between Hurricane
 Lane and Hurricane Olivia. Although Lane was a stronger tropical
 cyclone near the islands, it did not bring direct core impacts to
 the state. In some areas, Olivia could bring significantly worse
 impacts than were felt by Lane.
  
 2.  It is important to not focus on the exact forecast track and
 intensity when planning for Olivia. Persons on the main Hawaiian
 Islands should finish their preparations for direct impacts from
 this system starting as early as Tuesday night. Those impacts could
 include intense flooding rainfall, damaging winds, and large and
 dangerous surf.
  
 3.  Regardless of the exact track and intensity that Olivia takes
 as it approaches the islands, significant effects often extend far
 from the center. In particular, the mountainous terrain of Hawaii
 can produce localized areas of strongly enhanced wind gusts and
 rainfall, even well away from the tropical cyclone center.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  11/0300Z 21.9N 149.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
  12H  11/1200Z 21.9N 151.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
  24H  12/0000Z 21.6N 153.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
  36H  12/1200Z 21.2N 155.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  13/0000Z 20.7N 158.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
  72H  14/0000Z 20.1N 163.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
  96H  15/0000Z 20.7N 167.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 120H  16/0000Z 22.5N 173.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  
 $$
 Forecaster R Ballard
  
 
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