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 522 
 WTPA45 PHFO 101502
 TCDCP5
  
 Hurricane Olivia Discussion Number  40
 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP172018
 500 AM HST Mon Sep 10 2018
  
 Olivia's eye has been appearing at times this morning. The outflow
 pattern remains impressive, so it does not appear to be negatively
 impacted by vertical wind shear of around 10 kt. The satellite fix
 agencies (JTWC, SAB, and PHFO) provided unanimous subjective Dvorak
 current intensity estimates of 4.5/77 kt. The UW-CIMSS ADT estimate
 was 4.2/70 kt. Based on all of this information, we are maintaining
 the initial intensity at 75 kt for this advisory. Note that an
 aircraft flown by the U.S. Air Force Reserves 53rd Weather
 Reconnaissance Squadron is scheduled to sample the inner core and
 outer wind field of Olivia starting in a few hours. This will
 give us a much better idea of the latest intensity of Olivia once
 they arrive.
  
 Olivia continues to move nearly due west with a current motion of
 270/9 kt. This motion is being induced by a deep layer ridge to the
 north and northwest of the tropical cyclone. During the next 12
 hours or so, the ridge is expected to strengthen and build southward
 ahead of Olivia, forcing the tropical cyclone to shift toward a
 west-southwest track. This motion is expected to continue through
 day 3. The track guidance appears have slightly more spread through
 72 hours, especially from 36 to 72 hours. The spread is even greater
 during days 4 and 5. The current forecast track is very close to the
 previous, except it has been nudged to the right and is slightly
 slower during the first 72 hours. Little change has been made in the
 day 4 and 5 positions. This closely follows the latest TVCE, FSSE,
 GFEX and HCCA guidance. Again, since the is a wider spread in the
 track guidance, we want to emphasize the uncertainty in our track
 forecast. It is important to NOT focus on the exact forecast track
 of Olivia's center across the islands. A slight deviation to the
 right or left can bring vastly different weather hazards to any
 islands that are directly impacted by this potentially damaging
 tropical cyclone.
  
 Vertical wind shear remains relatively weak in the vicinity of
 Olivia. Water temperatures, as well as ocean heat content values,
 are expected to increase along the forecast track. Therefore, Olivia
 will likely remain a hurricane through 36 hours. After that,
 increasing vertical wind shear is forecast to take its toll on
 Olivia, so that it may be a strong tropical storm within 48 hours.
 Additional slow weakening is expected to persist during days 3
 through 5. The latest forecast is close to the IVCN and CTCI. Note
 that based on the latest track and intensity along with the wind
 speed probabilities, Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for
 the Big Island of Hawaii and the islands of Maui County.
  
 KEY MESSAGES:
  
 1.  It is important to not focus on the exact forecast track and
 intensity when planning for Olivia. Persons on the main Hawaiian
 Islands east of Kauai should continue preparing for the likelihood
 of direct impacts from this system today and early Tuesday. Those
 impacts could include intense flooding rainfall, damaging winds,
 large and dangerous surf, and storm surge.
  
 2.  Regardless of the exact track and intensity that Olivia takes
 as it approaches the islands, significant effects often extend far
 from the center. In particular, the mountainous terrain of Hawaii
 can produce localized areas of strongly enhanced winds and
 rainfall, even well away from the tropical cyclone center.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  10/1500Z 21.7N 148.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
  12H  11/0000Z 21.7N 149.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
  24H  11/1200Z 21.4N 151.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
  36H  12/0000Z 21.1N 153.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
  48H  12/1200Z 20.7N 155.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
  72H  13/1200Z 19.9N 160.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
  96H  14/1200Z 20.0N 166.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 120H  15/1200Z 21.0N 171.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  
 $$
 Forecaster Houston
  
 
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