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 WTPA45 PHFO 100919
 Hurricane Olivia Discussion Number  39
 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP172018
 1100 PM HST Sun Sep 09 2018
 Olivia's small eye surrounded by cold cloud tops is evident in
 infrared satellite imagery this evening. The U.S. Air Force
 Reserves 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron aircraft just
 completed a mission sampling the inner core and outer winds of
 Olivia. They found the pressure was lower and the surface winds
 stronger than their previous mission Sunday morning. Their SFMR,
 flight-level and dropsonde measurements suggested the maximum winds
 are near 75 kt. In addition, the satellite fix agencies (JTWC,
 SAB, and PHFO) provided unanimous subjective Dvorak current
 intensity estimates of 4.5/77 kt. Based on all of this information,
 we are increasing the initial intensity to 75 kt for this advisory.
 Olivia continues to move due west, but has slowed slightly, so the
 current motion is 270/8 kt. This motion is being induced by a deep
 layer ridge to the north and northwest of the tropical cyclone. In
 12 to 24 hours, the ridge is expected to strengthen and build
 southward ahead of Olivia, forcing the tropical cyclone to shift
 toward a west-southwest track. This motion is expected to continue
 through day 4. The track guidance appears to be more tightly
 clustered through 48 hours now, but the spread increases from days
 3 through 5. The current forecast track is very close to the
 previous, except it is slightly slower during the first 72 hours.
 This closely follows the latest TVCE, FSSE, GFEX and HCCA guidance.
 Again, since there remains some spread in the track guidance, this
 emphasizes the uncertainty in our track forecast. It is important
 to not focus on the exact forecast track of Olivia's center across
 the islands.
 Vertical wind shear remains relatively weak in the vicinity of
 Olivia. Water temperatures, as well as ocean heat content values,
 are expected to increase along the forecast track. Therefore, Olivia
 will likely remain a hurricane through 36 hours. After that,
 increasing vertical wind shear is forecast to take its toll on
 Olivia, so that it may be a strong tropical storm within 48 hours.
 Additional slow weakening is expected to persist during days 3
 through 5. The latest forecast is close to the IVCN and CTCI. Note
 that based on the latest track and intensity along with the wind
 speed probabilities, Tropical Storm Warnings will likely be required
 for portions of the Hawaiian Islands on Monday.
 1.  It is important to not focus on the exact forecast track and
 intensity when planning for Olivia. Persons on all of the main
 Hawaiian Islands should continue preparing for the likelihood of
 direct impacts from this system Monday and early Tuesday. Those
 impacts could include intense flooding rainfall, damaging winds,
 large and dangerous surf, and storm surge.
 2.  Regardless of the exact track and intensity that Olivia takes
 as it approaches the islands, significant effects often extend far
 from the center. In particular, the mountainous terrain of Hawaii
 can produce localized areas of strongly enhanced winds and
 rainfall, even well away from the tropical cyclone center.
 INIT  10/0900Z 21.7N 146.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
  12H  10/1800Z 21.6N 148.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
  24H  11/0600Z 21.5N 150.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
  36H  11/1800Z 21.2N 152.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
  48H  12/0600Z 20.8N 154.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
  72H  13/0600Z 19.9N 159.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
  96H  14/0600Z 19.5N 164.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 120H  15/0600Z 20.5N 169.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 Forecaster Houston
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