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 038 
 WTPA45 PHFO 100335
 TCDCP5
  
 Hurricane Olivia Discussion Number  38...Corrected
 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP172018
 500 PM HST Sun Sep 09 2018
  
 Olivia has continued to exhibit an indistinct but persistent eye 
 feature over the past several hours. A 2120 UTC AMSR2 and a 0050 UTC
 SSMIS pass showed a partial eyewall, mainly in the southeastern
 semicircle, along with what appears to be a developing banding
 feature to the northeast and east of the center. The subjective
 intensity estimates from SAB, JTWC, and PHFO were unanimous at 4.5,
 and ADT gave a 4.3. Have maintained the current intensity of 65 kt
 for now, pending more data from the next Air Force Reserve Hurricane
 Hunter mission this evening.
 
 Neglecting wobbles, Olivia is moving 270/10. This due west motion
 is being induced by a deep layer ridge to the north and northwest
 of the tropical cyclone. In 12 to 24 hours, the ridge is expected
 to strengthen and build southward ahead of Olivia, forcing the
 cyclone on a slightly slower and more south of due west motion that
 will persist through about 96 hours. Unfortunately, the track
 guidance actually shows slightly more spread for this cycle. The
 ECMWF, Canadian, and NAVGEM models are on the northern side of the 
 envelope, while the GFS now appears to be a southern outlier. The 
 consensus guidance splits the difference and remained very close to 
 the previous forecast. Thus, made very little change to the
 forecast track. However, the spread in the guidance and resulting
 uncertainty demonstrates the importance of not focusing too much on
 the exact track as Olivia moves across the islands.  
 
 There's also little change to the forecast thinking in terms of 
 intensity. Sea surface temperatures will be marginal, but gradually 
 increasing along the track as Olivia approaches the main Hawaiian 
 Islands. Wind shear is expected to remain weak over the tropical 
 cyclone through the next 24 hours, then begin gradually increasing, 
 approaching 30 knots by 72 hours. All of the intensity guidance 
 depicts weakening after 36 hours, but at somewhat different rates. 
 Our forecast depicts Olivia weakening faster than HCCA and LGEM,
 but not as fast as most of the consensus guidance, HMON, and SHIPS.
 
 KEY MESSAGES: 
 
 1.  It is important to not focus on the exact forecast track and 
 intensity when planning for Olivia. Persons on all the main
 Hawaiian Islands should continue preparing for the likelihood of
 direct impacts from this system this week. Those impacts could
 include intense flooding rainfall, damaging winds, large and
 dangerous surf, and storm surge.
 
 2.  Regardless of the exact track and intensity that Olivia takes
 as it approaches the islands, significant effects often extend far
 from the center. In particular, the mountainous terrain of Hawaii
 can produce localized areas of strongly enhanced winds and
 rainfall, even well away from the tropical cyclone center.
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  10/0300Z 21.7N 146.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
  12H  10/1200Z 21.7N 147.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
  24H  11/0000Z 21.5N 149.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
  36H  11/1200Z 21.2N 151.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
  48H  12/0000Z 20.9N 153.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
  72H  13/0000Z 19.9N 158.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
  96H  14/0000Z 19.3N 163.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 120H  15/0000Z 20.1N 168.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
  
 $$
 Forecaster R Ballard
  
 
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