Image Department Meteorology
Meteorology_Home Weather_Server News/Seminars
People
Research
Academics Application Contact_Us

Hawaiian_Weather
US_Mainland_Weather
Tropical_Weather
Satellite_Imagery
Radar_Imagery
Marine
Numerical_Models
LAPS
Forecasts
Observations
Archive
Links Disclaimer
Space
SOEST_Home
University_of_Hawaii_Home

 298 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 070847
 TCDEP5
  
 TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152012
 200 AM PDT SUN OCT 07 2012
  
 WINDSAT AND SSMIS MICROWAVE DATA FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO INDICATE
 THAT OLIVIA HAS A TIGHT INNER CORE...AND RECENT INFRARED IMAGERY
 SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS BECOME BROKEN AND SOMEWHAT
 DISCONNECTED FROM THE INNER CIRCULATION.  NONETHELESS...DVORAK
 INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T3.0 FROM TAFB AND T3.5 FROM SAB...AND A
 CONSENSUS OF THESE NUMBERS SUGGESTS AN INTENSITY OF 50 KT.
 
 OLIVIA IS MOVING OVER VERY WARM 29C WATER AND HAS RELATIVELY GOOD
 UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.  THE CYCLONE IS IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...
 WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 36 HOURS OR SO BEFORE
 DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASES.  THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD
 ALLOW OLIVIA TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  ALTHOUGH
 ONLY THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND HWRF MODELS SHOW OLIVIA REACHING
 HURRICANE INTENSITY...THEIR SOLUTIONS SEEM REASONABLE SINCE STORMS
 WITH COMPACT INNER CORES TEND TO STRENGTHEN MORE EASILY THAN THOSE
 WITH BROADER CIRCULATIONS.  AFTER 36 HOURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD
 WEAKEN DUE TO THE INCREASING SHEAR...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE
 THAT THE CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY BECOME DECOUPLED.  THE NHC
 INTENSITY FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
 LIES NEAR THE HIGHER END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
 
 THE STORM HAS TURNED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF
 295/7 KT.  A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA
 IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND
 BEING ON ITS WESTERN FLANK...OLIVIA SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD BY THIS
 TIME TOMORROW.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY
 NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS...LED BY THE ECMWF AND GFS
 WHICH SHOW THE MOST PRONOUNCED NORTHWARD MOTION.  THE NHC TRACK HAS
 BEEN SHIFTED IN THAT DIRECTION...NOT GOING AS FAR AS THE ECMWF AND
 GFS BUT ENDING UP NEAR THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND MODEL CONSENSUS
 TVCE.  AFTER 48 HOURS...THE STRONGER SHEAR SHOULD DECOUPLE THE
 CIRCULATION...AND THE LOW-LEVEL PORTION IS FORECAST TO TURN
 WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE TRADE WINDS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  07/0900Z 14.4N 120.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
  12H  07/1800Z 15.1N 121.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
  24H  08/0600Z 16.0N 121.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
  36H  08/1800Z 16.7N 121.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
  48H  09/0600Z 17.0N 122.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
  72H  10/0600Z 16.5N 123.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
  96H  11/0600Z 16.0N 125.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 120H  12/0600Z 15.5N 128.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BERG
  
 
Return to the Tropical Systems Page for OLIVIA

Back to main Tropical Weather page




This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students.
It was last modified on: Thu, Jul 23 2020 - 2003 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman