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 421 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 121440
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162006
 800 AM PDT THU OCT 12 2006
 
 CONVECTION HAS BEEN DIMINISHING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH ONLY
 ONE SMALL CELL REMAINING.  OLIVIA BARELY MEETS THE CRITERIA FOR A
 TROPICAL CYCLONE AND AS SOON AS CONVECTION DISSIPATES... SO WILL
 THE DEPRESSION.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LEFT AT 25 KT IN
 AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS.  A SLOW SPINDOWN OF THE
 VORTEX IS LIKELY DUE TO STRONG SHEAR AND DRY AIR ALOFT NEAR THE
 SYSTEM. 
 
 OLIVIA HAS BEEN MOVING 080/8 BUT IS LIKELY TO START MOVING DUE EAST
 SOON. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED
 STATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE CYCLONE EASTWARD. ALMOST ALL
 GUIDANCE SHOWS A MOTION SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF EAST AS THE REMNANT LOW
 OF OLIVIA BECOME PART OF A LARGER DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF MEXICO. THE
 TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND REMAINS A LITTLE
 NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      12/1500Z 17.7N 121.1W    25 KT
  12HR VT     13/0000Z 17.7N 119.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  24HR VT     13/1200Z 17.6N 117.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  36HR VT     14/0000Z 17.5N 115.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  48HR VT     14/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
  
 
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