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 363 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 101432
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162006
 800 AM PDT TUE OCT 10 2006
  
 THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN MAINTAINING DEEP CONVECTION OVER AND NORTH OF
 THE CIRCULATION CENTER FOR 6 TO 9 HOURS NOW.  A TRMM PASS AT 0721
 UTC SUGGESTS THIS CONVECTION HAS SOME BANDING STRUCTURE...AND
 DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE THREE AGENCIES RANGE FROM 35 TO
 45 KT.  ON THIS BASIS...THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO A 40 KT
 TROPICAL STORM.  ONLY A LITTLE MORE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DUE TO
 SOUTHERLY SHEAR...WHICH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND
 INCREASE AFTER 24 HOURS.  THIS...COUPLED WITH COOLER WATERS FROM
 36-72 HOURS...IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN DISSIPATION BEFORE THE END
 OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 005/5...BASED IN PART ON THE TRMM
 PASS.  OLIVIA IS MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
 RIDGE...AND SHOULD SOON BE FEELING THE EFFECTS OF A LARGE MID- TO
 UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE.  ALL GUIDANCE
 TURNS OLIVIA SHARPLY NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT
 THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AFTER THAT.  THE
 UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS WEAKEN THE CYCLONE AND TAKE IT SLOWLY
 EASTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...WHILE THE GFDL MAINTAINS A MORE
 COHERENT STRUCTURE AND CONSEQUENTLY FOLLOWS A DEEPER FLOW MORE
 RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST.  THE GFS APPARENTLY WANTS TO HAVE IT BOTH
 WAYS...SPLITTING OLIVIA INTO TWO VORTICITY MAXIMA...ONE OF WHICH
 GOES NORTHEASTWARD AND A WEAKER LOBE THAN LINGERS TO THE SOUTH.  I
 AM INCLINED TO THINK THAT OLIVIA WILL FOLLOW NORMAN'S LEAD...WHICH
 CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF SHEARING OFF AND SLOWING
 DOWN.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT OF
 THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE CONU CONSENSUS.
   
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      10/1500Z 14.6N 127.5W    40 KT
  12HR VT     11/0000Z 15.3N 126.9W    45 KT
  24HR VT     11/1200Z 16.2N 125.6W    45 KT
  36HR VT     12/0000Z 17.0N 123.7W    40 KT
  48HR VT     12/1200Z 17.7N 121.8W    35 KT
  72HR VT     13/1200Z 19.0N 118.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     14/1200Z 20.0N 114.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     15/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN
  
 
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