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 825 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 182055
 TCDEP4
 
 HURRICANE OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192015
 200 PM PDT SUN OCT 18 2015
 
 Olaf hasn't changed much in organization during the past few hours,
 with satellite imagery still showing a CDO and a large, but broken,
 convective band in the western and southern semicircles of the
 cyclone. There appears to be a dry slot working into the western
 side of the circulation, and the eye has been less distinct in
 recent microwave imagery than it was earlier. The initial intensity
 remains 70 kt, a little higher than the latest Dvorak estimates from
 TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT. The initial 34- and 50-kt wind
 radii were adjusted based on a timely 1815Z ASCAT-B overpass.
 
 The pause in strengthening could be due to the aforementioned dry
 air and moderate west-northwesterly to northwesterly shear analyzed
 over the cyclone by the SHIPS model and UW-CIMSS. Given the shear
 and an inner-core that may be a little less organized, the new NHC
 intensity forecast shows a slower rate of strengthening in the first
 couple of days, and is now closer to the bulk of the intensity
 guidance. The forecast still shows Olaf becoming a major hurricane
 in 2-3 days followed by a slow decay as the hurricane moves over
 somewhat cooler SSTs late in the period. The NHC prediction is close
 to the SHIPS model through much of the period, but a little above it
 at peak intensity.
 
 Olaf continues to move quickly westward, with a motion now estimated
 at 280/12. This continues a trend of the hurricane moving faster and
 to the left of the previous couple of forecasts. While the
 subtropical ridge to the north weakens is still expected to weaken
 and lift northward, the track model guidance continues to shift
 westward given the initial motion and Olaf failing to gain as much
 latitude as previously thought in the short term. The new NHC track
 forecast has been adjusted to the left of the previous one,
 especially at days 3 through 5, and is now close to a blend of the
 latest ECMWF and GFS forecasts.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  18/2100Z  9.7N 134.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
  12H  19/0600Z  9.9N 135.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
  24H  19/1800Z 10.3N 137.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
  36H  20/0600Z 11.0N 139.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
  48H  20/1800Z 11.8N 140.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
  72H  21/1800Z 13.7N 143.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
  96H  22/1800Z 16.0N 145.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 120H  23/1800Z 18.0N 145.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brennan
 
 
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