828 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 160835
 TCDEP4
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192015
 200 AM PDT FRI OCT 16 2015
 
 The cloud pattern remains poorly organized and consists of a small
 area of deep convection with little or no banding features.
 Microwave data suggest that the low-level center is still on the
 eastern edge of the convective region.  Given that the Dvorak
 CI-numbers have not changed significantly, the initial intensity is
 kept at 25 kt.
 
 It is surprising that the depression has not responded to the
 quite favorable environment of low shear and warm waters yet. In
 fact, most the guidance indicated that the depression should have
 been already a strong tropical storm or even a hurricane. Since
 the opportunity for strengthening is still there, the NHC forecast
 insists on intensification and calls for the depression to become a
 hurricane in about 3 days.
 
 The depression is trapped south of strong subtropical ridge moving
 toward the west at 12 kt. Global models indicate that the ridge will
 gradually move eastward. This steering pattern should allow the
 cyclone to turn more to the west-northwest in about 3 days, and
 eventually to move northward by the end of the forecast period. The
 NHC forecast is basically on top of the multi-model consensus and
 the GFS/ECMWF solutions. The spread in the guidance has decreased a
 little bit, and in general, most of the models now turn the cyclone
 northward around 140 W. This increases slightly the confidence in
 the long range track forecast.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  16/0900Z 10.1N 123.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
  12H  16/1800Z 10.0N 125.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  17/0600Z 10.0N 127.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  17/1800Z 10.0N 129.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  18/0600Z 10.3N 130.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
  72H  19/0600Z 11.5N 133.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
  96H  20/0600Z 13.0N 136.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 120H  21/0600Z 15.0N 139.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila