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 135 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 160231
 TCDEP4
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192015
 800 PM PDT THU OCT 15 2015
 
 The cloud pattern of the depression has appeared ragged in satellite
 images most of the day, and the latest Dvorak CI-numbers from TAFB
 and SAB have decreased to 1.5/25 kt.  The associated deep convection
 does not have much curvature and it is largely confined to areas to
 the north and west of the estimated center.  Based on the degraded
 appearance, the initial wind speed is lowered slightly to 25 kt.
 
 It is not clear why the depression has not strengthened today as the
 large-scale environmental conditions have been quite conducive for
 intensification.  The depression is expected to remain in a low wind
 shear and high moisture environment and over warm water for at least
 the next few days.  Therefore, it is assumed that the system will
 have the opportunity to gain strength.  The GFS, as well as the
 GFS-based SHIPS and LGEM guidance, are the most aggressive models
 and show the cyclone becoming a hurricane in a couple of days with
 continued strengthening thereafter.  Conversely, the GFDL and HWRF
 models show much less strengthening.  Given the poor initial
 structure of the cyclone, the official intensity forecast has been
 lowered in the short term but remains relatively unchanged from the
 previous prediction at the later forecast times.
 
 The depression is moving westward at about 11 kt steered by a
 subtropical ridge to its north.  A continued westward motion but at
 a slower pace is forecast during the next couple of days while the
 ridge weakens in place.  After that time, a turn to the northwest
 is expected as a weakness develops in the ridge east of the
 Hawaiian Islands.  Although there is considerable spread in the
 guidance on when the northwestward turn should occur, the models
 agree on the overall theme. The new official track forecast is
 essentially an update of the previous one for the first couple of
 days, but then is shifted westward to come into better agreement
 with the latest model consensus aids.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  16/0300Z 10.2N 122.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
  12H  16/1200Z 10.1N 124.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  17/0000Z 10.0N 126.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  17/1200Z  9.9N 128.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  18/0000Z 10.2N 129.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
  72H  19/0000Z 11.1N 132.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
  96H  20/0000Z 12.7N 135.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 120H  21/0000Z 15.1N 137.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi
 
 
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