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 425 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 152036
 TCDEP4
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192015
 200 PM PDT THU OCT 15 2015
 
 Visible satellite images suggest that the depression is not very
 well organized.  The circulation is still somewhat elongated, and
 the low-level center is located near the eastern edge of a cluster
 of deep convection.  The convection itself also appears to have
 lost some organization since earlier today.  The maximum winds
 remain 30 kt based on Dvorak CI numbers of 2.0 from TAFB and SAB.
 Even though environmental conditions appear conducive for
 strengthening, the depression is not in any hurry to intensify.
 The hurricane intensity models and the global models all insist
 that the depression will strengthen soon.  However, the one
 prominent difference in this afternoon's model suite is that the
 ECMWF model does not deepen the cyclone for another 48 hours or
 so.  Since most of the guidance intensifies the system through 5
 days, the NHC intensity forecast remains consistent with the
 previous forecasts, making the cyclone a hurricane in about 2-3
 days.  This is also consistent with the latest intensity consensus.
 However, given the latest ECMWF run and the current structure of the
 depression, it's possible that intensification could be delayed.
 
 The initial motion is 265/11 kt.  A mid-level ridge is steering the
 depression westward, and this motion is likely to continue for at
 least another 48 hours.  After that time, the ridge is forecast to
 weaken and give way to a broad trough west of the Baja California
 peninsula.  This should allow the cyclone to turn west-northwestward
 and then northwestward by day 5.  Although the track models
 generally agree on this scenario, the system's weaker representation
 in the ECMWF during the first few days causes it to continue
 westward beyond 48 hours and make a more gradual turn compared to
 the other models.  This now places the ECMWF closer to the UKMET
 model, which was the only outlier on the previous forecast cycle.
 Based on the new guidance, the NHC track forecast has been shifted
 westward and is a little bit slower than the previous forecast,
 especially at days 4 and 5.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  15/2100Z 10.1N 120.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  16/0600Z  9.9N 122.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  16/1800Z  9.9N 125.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  17/0600Z  9.8N 127.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
  48H  17/1800Z  9.9N 128.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
  72H  18/1800Z 10.7N 131.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
  96H  19/1800Z 12.5N 134.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 120H  20/1800Z 15.0N 137.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Berg
 
 
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