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 772 
 WTPA45 PHFO 252039
 TCDCP5
 
 HURRICANE OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER  44
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP192015
 1100 AM HST SUN OCT 25 2015
  
 THE SATELLITE REPRESENTATION OF OLAF HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE
 PAST SEVERAL HOURS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
 REMAIN 4.5/77 KT FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES. THUS HAVE KEPT THE
 INITIAL INTENSITY AT 80 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE. RECENT SSMIS
 AND WINDSAT IMAGERY INDICATE A SLIGHTLY TILTED SYSTEM WITH THE LOW
 LEVEL CENTER LIKELY JUST TO THE WEST OF THE EYE AS SEEN IN
 CONVENTIONAL VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. 
 
 OLAF CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHEAST BETWEEN AN EAST
 TO WEST ORIENTED RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AND
 A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST. THE UPPER LEVEL
 TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE FOR
 OLAF DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
 NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE
 NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE BEYOND 48
 HOURS WITH THE GFS AND GFDL CONTINUING ON A NORTHEAST TRACK WHILE
 THE ECMWF...UKMET AND NAVGEM SLOWING THE SYSTEM DOWN AND TURNING IT
 SHARPLY TO THE RIGHT IN A MUCH WEAKER STATE AS THE TROUGH MOVES
 AWAY TO THE EAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE
 PREVIOUS FORECAST SLOWING OLAF DOWN AND TURNING IT TOWARD THE RIGHT
 BEYOND 48 HOURS. 
 
 THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS
 ADVISORY PACKAGE. OLAF IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING 20 TO 25 KT OF
 WESTERLY SHEAR. SHIPS GUIDANCE KEEPS HIGH SHEAR VALUES OVER THE
 SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS ALONG WITH COOLER SST
 VALUES ALONG ITS PATH WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING AS
 INDICATED BY ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. OLAF IS EXPECTED TO
 WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND TO A
 DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. BY DAY 4 WE EXPECT OLAF TO BECOME
 VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH JUST A SHALLOW LOW EXPECTED WITH
 DISSIPATION FORECAST BY DAY 5. 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  25/2100Z 22.5N 143.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
  12H  26/0600Z 23.8N 142.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
  24H  26/1800Z 25.5N 139.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
  36H  27/0600Z 27.1N 137.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  27/1800Z 28.4N 134.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
  72H  28/1800Z 28.4N 133.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  96H  29/1800Z 26.2N 133.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BURKE
 
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