772
WTPA45 PHFO 252039
TCDCP5
HURRICANE OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 44
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP192015
1100 AM HST SUN OCT 25 2015
THE SATELLITE REPRESENTATION OF OLAF HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
REMAIN 4.5/77 KT FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES. THUS HAVE KEPT THE
INITIAL INTENSITY AT 80 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE. RECENT SSMIS
AND WINDSAT IMAGERY INDICATE A SLIGHTLY TILTED SYSTEM WITH THE LOW
LEVEL CENTER LIKELY JUST TO THE WEST OF THE EYE AS SEEN IN
CONVENTIONAL VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
OLAF CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHEAST BETWEEN AN EAST
TO WEST ORIENTED RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AND
A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE FOR
OLAF DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE BEYOND 48
HOURS WITH THE GFS AND GFDL CONTINUING ON A NORTHEAST TRACK WHILE
THE ECMWF...UKMET AND NAVGEM SLOWING THE SYSTEM DOWN AND TURNING IT
SHARPLY TO THE RIGHT IN A MUCH WEAKER STATE AS THE TROUGH MOVES
AWAY TO THE EAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST SLOWING OLAF DOWN AND TURNING IT TOWARD THE RIGHT
BEYOND 48 HOURS.
THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY PACKAGE. OLAF IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING 20 TO 25 KT OF
WESTERLY SHEAR. SHIPS GUIDANCE KEEPS HIGH SHEAR VALUES OVER THE
SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS ALONG WITH COOLER SST
VALUES ALONG ITS PATH WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING AS
INDICATED BY ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. OLAF IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND TO A
DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. BY DAY 4 WE EXPECT OLAF TO BECOME
VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH JUST A SHALLOW LOW EXPECTED WITH
DISSIPATION FORECAST BY DAY 5.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/2100Z 22.5N 143.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 23.8N 142.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 25.5N 139.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 27.1N 137.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 28.4N 134.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 28.4N 133.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 26.2N 133.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BURKE
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