013 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 162049
 TCDEP5
 
 TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
 200 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014
 
 The convective cloud pattern of Odile has stabilized during the
 past 6 hours, due in part to the center moving closer to the very
 warm waters of the Gulf of California. Visible and microwave
 satellite imagery, along with surface observations from Bahia de
 Los Angeles, Mexico indicate that the low-level circulation center
 is located just inland along the east-central coast of the Baja
 California peninsula very near Bahia de Los Angeles. A 1642 UTC
 ASCAT-B partial overpass showed one 44-kt vector and two 42-kt
 vectors in the southeastern quadrant, so the advisory intensity is
 set to 45 kt. The same wind data were used to adjust the 34-kt wind
 radii over the Gulf of California and to remove the tropical storm
 warning along the west coast of Baja California.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 360/06 kt. Odile appears to now be
 moving northward around the western periphery of a deep-layer ridge
 that is situated over mainland Mexico. The cyclone should emerge
 over the Gulf of California later this evening, turn toward the
 northeast on Wednesday, and move inland over northwestern
 Mexico by Wednesday evening. The NHC model guidance remains tightly
 clustered, and the new forecast track is just an extension of the
 previous advisory and closely follows the consensus model TVCE.
 Remnant low positions at 36 and 48 hours have been provided
 for continuity purposes and to assist with rainfall forecasts.
 
 As Odile moves across 31C SSTs of the northern Gulf of California,
 little change in intensity is expected. By 24 hours and beyond,
 rapid weakening is expected as the cyclone moves inland over the
 rugged terrain of northwestern Mexico. The system is expected to
 dissipate by 72 hours, if not sooner.
 
 Moisture is forecast to be advected northward by Odile's circulation
 over the next few days.  This, along with the slow motion of Odile
 or its remnant low, will likely result in locally heavy rains and
 possible flooding over portions of the southwestern United States.
 Please see information from your local weather office for more
 details.
 
 In addition, a significant storm surge is possible along the
 northern Gulf of California from Puerto Penasco westward to San
 Felipe Mexico, due to a long fetch of southeasterly winds forcing
 trapped water into the concave coastal regions of the northern Gulf
 of California.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  16/2100Z 29.1N 113.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
  12H  17/0600Z 29.9N 113.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER
  24H  17/1800Z 31.0N 112.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND NWRN MEXICO
  36H  18/0600Z 32.1N 112.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  18/1800Z 33.2N 111.4W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
 
 $$
 Forecaster Stewart