659 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 160236
 TCDEP5
 
 TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
 800 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014
 
 The tropical cyclone continues to have a fairly well-organized
 appearance on satellite imagery, but deep convection has been
 thinning out.  Applying a typical inland decay rate, the current
 intensity is set at a rather uncertain 55 kt.  Continued weakening
 is forecast, and the system is likely to fall below tropical storm
 strength in a day or so.  The official wind speed forecast is
 similar to the latest decay-SHIPS guidance and to the intensity
 model consensus, and now shows Odile becoming a remnant low by 72
 hours.
 
 Odile's heading has shifted a little to the right, and the
 initial motion estimate is 340/11 kt.  A mid-level ridge to the
 east of the cyclone should cause a turn toward the north in a day or
 so, and a low- to mid-level trough near southern California is
 likely to turn Odile or its remnant low north-northeastward in 2-3
 days.  The official track forecast is a little faster than the
 previous one and is close to the latest dynamical model consensus
 forecast, TVCE.
 
 Moisture is forecast to be advected northward by Odile's
 circulation over the next few days.  This, along with the slow
 motion of Odile or its remnant low, will likely result in locally
 heavy rains and possible flooding over portions of the southwestern
 United States.  Please see information from your local weather
 office for more details.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  16/0300Z 26.6N 112.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
  12H  16/1200Z 27.8N 113.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
  24H  17/0000Z 28.8N 113.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
  36H  17/1200Z 29.7N 113.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
  48H  18/0000Z 30.6N 112.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
  72H  19/0000Z 32.0N 111.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  20/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Pasch